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Analyzing the Transportation and Climate Initiative Program Using an Integrated Assessment Model
Citation:
Li, Z. AND Dan Loughlin. Analyzing the Transportation and Climate Initiative Program Using an Integrated Assessment Model. 20th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, November 01 - 05, 2021.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation illustrates the use of an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution to assess the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission impacts of a regional cap on on-road transportation carbon emissions. This modeling approach is able to provide insights about cross-sector, inter-state, and multi-pollutant impacts.
Description:
The Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) is a cap-and-invest program that is designed to reduce transportation-related CO2 emissions from the thirteen participating states. Electrification of the transportation sector has the potential to interact with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) market, a cap-and-trade system for CO2 emissions from electricity generation. Potential impacts of this interaction could include leakage of CO2 emissions to other sectors and states. This study utilized a human-earth systems model with state-level resolution, the Global Change Analysis Model USA (GCAM-USA), to investigate TCI’s regional emissions reduction potential and to quantify the impacts of the program under alternative assumptions. The results show that TCI would lower regional net CO2 emissions and increase market penetration of both heavy- and light-duty electric vehicles through 2050. Furthermore, emissions reduction and changes in transportation fuel mix would be accompanied by an increase in the RGGI CO2 allowance price, a moderate increase in the price of electricity, and an increase in the cost of on-road travel. In the freight sector, a portion of heavy-duty demand shifts from trucks to trains and marine vessels. Also, some of the CO2 reduction from on-road transportation is offset by the increases in emissions from non-road transportation and electricity generation. Pennsylvania, the only TCI state that does not currently belong to RGGI, experiences the highest increases in CO2 from the electric sector as well as the lowest percentage reduction of NOx emissions, reflecting both its own additional electricity demands from TCI and greater electricity exports to RGGI states. Extending the declining RGGI and TCI cap trends through 2050 leads to greater reductions in CO2 and air pollutant emissions. In addition, it further facilitates the energy transition from carbon-based fuels to electricity in the on-road transportation sector.
