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Pop-GUIDE: Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological Risk Assessment (SETAC)
Citation:
Raimondo, Sandy, A. Schmolke, C. Accolla, N. Galic, J. Awkerman, A. Kanarek, A. Moore, M. Vaugeois, P. Rueda-Cediel, N. Pollesch, AND V. Forbes. Pop-GUIDE: Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological Risk Assessment (SETAC). Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Europe, Dublin, N/A, IRELAND, May 03 - 07, 2020.
Impact/Purpose:
We present a continued development of a transparent, transferable framework for the development of population models for ERAs that aligns the trade-offs of generality, realism, and precision of the ERA objective with the uncertainty of model output. While the framework presents an approach that will guide the development of population models of varying levels of complexity based on the objective of the ERA, the principles that define the framework can be applied to other types of models used in ERA.
Description:
The assimilation of population models into the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) process has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, translating model outputs into endpoints that can be used by risk assessors has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated Modeling Framework and Decision Guide to aid the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the Framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with the protection goal. The Decision Guide provides risk assessors with a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. We have merged the Decision Guide and Modeling Framework into Pop-GUIDE (Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological Risk Assessment), a comprehensive approach for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes, assessment objectives, and taxa. In Phase 1 of Pop-Guide, an approach is presented to guide assessors through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision and translate these trade-offs into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to develop a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure comprehension and transparency of the modeling process. In Phase 4, a conceptual model is developed to represent the trade-offs and uncertainties commensurate with the ERA objective. We demonstrate Pop-GUIDE using case studies of fish and pesticides.
