You are here:
Increasing the use of near-zero emission energy technologies depends on social, technological, and policy factors
Citation:
Brown, K. Increasing the use of near-zero emission energy technologies depends on social, technological, and policy factors. 2019 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 09 - 13, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
This study evaluates how social factors may impact policy implementation. A representative national renewable energy standard is evaluated in four different future energy pathways. This is a modeling study that evaluates potential obstacles to increasing renewable electricity generation. The results include estimates of possible future emissions that could impact human health. This study is important because it highlights factors that should be considered when writing new rules in the future. Any state, local, or federal government entities interested in evaluating future energy policies could gain insight into their process from these results.
Description:
Renewable energy standards can force electricity generation closer to a near-zero emission system, but this policy mechanism must interact with social and technological factors. This analysis models how consumer behavior and technology development may interact with external policy requirements. Renewable energy standards of varying stringencies are modeled within four alternative future pathways. The pathways have different energy demands, and the impacted technologies have different net present values for each pathway, which represents the rate of technological development. The renewable technologies are defined as biomass combustion, combined heat and power, geothermal, hydropower, landfill gas-to-energy, waste-to-energy, solar photovoltaic (utility and rooftop), solar thermal, and wind. Stringencies of the renewable energy standard range from 40-80% in 2050, with 20 total scenarios modeled. If high penetration of renewable energy is mandated by policy, but consumers do not change their habits and technology doesn’t improve, the energy system will be unable to comply with the mandate. However, if consumers are already inclined to favor low emission systems, policy may reduce other barriers to increased use of near-zero emission technologies. Wind and solar are used to meet the standard in all cases. Increases in biomass and waste energy are tied to other drivers within each scenario. For instance, when air quality is prioritized, generation involving combustion is used less. The results indicate that high penetration (over 70%) of near-zero emission technologies would require broad changes in energy technologies and underlying energy demands, beyond the scope of traditional renewable energy standards. This study was not intended as a feasibility study for renewable penetration, but rather as an indicator of how uncertain external drivers can either facilitate or create obstacles to these transitions.