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Changes in Eastern North Carolina PIDF Curves Projected in Dynamically Downscaled CESM and CM3 Models, Under Future Scenarios (2025-2100) Using WRF
Citation:
Jalowska, A., J. Bowden, AND T. Spero. Changes in Eastern North Carolina PIDF Curves Projected in Dynamically Downscaled CESM and CM3 Models, Under Future Scenarios (2025-2100) Using WRF. 2019 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 09 - 13, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
Presented at the 2019 AGU Fall Meeting.
Description:
The increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events has been well-documented within the eastern United States in historical climate records. Recent climate research suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation in the eastern United States. will continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. Eastern North Carolina communities are particularly vulnerable to frequent and devasting storms and their associated flooding. Additionally, recent years showed that these communities and the infrastructure are not well prepared to face more intense precipitation events, under changing climate. To address arising challenges related to changing precipitation characteristics, governing and managing bodies need information to prepare for future weather, which can be provided by the modelling community. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale simulations from two global climate models for a highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5): the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model (CM3). In this study, we examine changes to both, mean and extreme precipitation within eastern North Carolina from 2025 to 2100. We apply a regional frequency analysis to the WRF model fields to better inform stakeholders of possible changes in extreme precipitation intensity, and their recurrence probabilities (PIDF curves) in these scenarios. Preliminary data from this study indicate up to a 30% increase in annual precipitation from 2025 to 2100. Changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events are more pronounced in future climate, with a one-fold increase in the intensity of one-day precipitation maxima.