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How External Factors Influence Policy Goals using the Example of Renewable Energy Standards
Citation:
Brown, K. How External Factors Influence Policy Goals using the Example of Renewable Energy Standards. 2019 USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Denver, CO, November 03 - 06, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
This study evaluates how social factors may impact policy implementation. A representative national renewable energy standard is evaluated in four different future energy pathways. This is a modeling study that evaluates potential obstacles to increasing renewable electricity generation. The results include estimates of possible future emissions that could impact human health. This study is important because it highlights factors that should be considered when writing new rules in the future. Any state, local, or federal government entities interested in evaluating future energy policies could gain insight into their process from these results.
Description:
Two important areas of uncertainty for the future of the energy system are the extent of technological change and the capacity for societal change in response to environmental considerations. Brown et al. (2018) developed a structure to model four potential pathways of the U.S. energy system in the MARKAL energy-economic optimization model. The four pathways consider combinations of forcing values for key parameters that capture these areas of uncertainty. . These four pathways describe potential evolutions of the energy system, but are independent of additional policies that might be implemented. The following analysis expands upon the four pathways by evaluating how an energy policy might evolve within each of these pathways, and its robustness across pathways. Many states are implementing versions of a renewable energy standard, sometimes refered to as a renewable portfolio standard. This type of policy defines a set of electricity generation technologies as “renewable” and sets a production target for electricity from these technologies. These policies are typically defined by requiring that a minimum percentage of electricity generation comes from technologies identified as renewable. A renewable energy standard, or any other energy policy, is only one factor influencing the evolution of the energy system. Many other factors impact what choices will be made at both the individual and infrastructure levels. This study was not intended as a feasibility study for renewable penetration, but rather as an indicator of how uncertain external drivers can either facilitate or create obstacles to these transitions.