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Pop-GUIDE: Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological Risk Assessment..
Citation:
Raimondo, S., A. Schmolke, C. Accolla, J. Awkerman, M. Etterson, N. Galic, A. Moore, M. Vaugeois, P. Rueda-Cediel, N. Pollesch, AND V. Forbes. Pop-GUIDE: Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological Risk Assessment.. SETAC, Toronto, Ontario, CANADA, November 03 - 07, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
The assimilation of population models into the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) process has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, and resource investment, as well as and the challenges of translating model output into an endpoint that is useable by the risk assessor for their objective. This research will apply the most recent advances in population modeling for ERA into a comprehensive guide for the development of population models that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. The guidance will provide a simple, logical process that is designed to aid risk assessors with limited resources determine the scope and complexity of a population models for ERAs.
Description:
The assimilation of population models into the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) process has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, translating model outputs into endpoints that are useable by risk assessors for their objective has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated Modeling Framework and Decision Guide to assist risk assessors with the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the Framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with needs of the protection goal. The Decision Guide moves risk assessors through a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. Here, we merge the decision guide and modeling framework into a comprehensive approach for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. In Phase 1 of Pop-GUIDE (Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological Risk Assessment), an approach is presented to guide assessors through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision and translate these trade-offs into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to develop a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure comprehension and transparency of the modeling process. Pop-GUIDE provides a simple, logical process designed to aid risk assessors with limited resources determine the scope and the level of complexity of population models for ERAs with respect to available data. We introduce Pop-GUIDE using fish as example taxon and FIFRA as a regulatory statute example.