Science Inventory

Understanding Technology, Fuel, Market and Policy Drivers for New York State's Power Sector Transformation

Citation:

Isik, M. AND O. Kaplan. Understanding Technology, Fuel, Market and Policy Drivers for New York State's Power Sector Transformation. Sustainability. MDPI, Basel, Switzerland, 13(1):265, (2020). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13010265

Impact/Purpose:

A deep understanding of the underlying mechanisms concerning emissions resulted from electricity generation has a vital significance for taking noteworthy actions to achieve further reductions, especially for New York State, which has committed a transition to 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper carries out the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) analysis approach on the power sector between 1990 and 2016, to elucidate the relationship among driving factors and the change in total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission level. Major air pollutants: sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) are also taken into consideration to cover the transition of the electricity generation sector from multiple perspectives. Change in electricity utility structure, efficiency, fuel type, total production value, and emission factors are explored with a particular focus on the effect of non-fossil-based technology investments and air regulations. At the state level, CO2 significantly drop by 55% whereas this rate equal to 96% and 85% for SO2 and NOx respectively during the analysis period. Based on our findings, the change in the fossil fuel mix was the main contributor to promote the reduction in CO2 and SO2 emissions. Besides, the change in electricity demand and technical efficiency has relatively small impacts between 1990-2016, whereas for 2000-2016 the decline in NOx was mainly due to efficiency improvement.

Description:

A thorough understanding of the drivers that affect the emission levels from electricity generation, support sound design and the implementation of further emission reduction goals are presented here. For instance, New York State has already committed a transition to 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper identifies the relationships among driving factors and the changes in emissions levels between 1990 and 2050 using the logarithmic mean divisia index analysis. The analysis relies on historical data and outputs from techno-economic-energy system modeling to elucidate future power sector pathways. Three scenarios, including a business-as-usual scenario and two policy scenarios, explore the changes in utility structure, efficiency, fuel type, generation, and emission factors, considering the non-fossil-based technology options and air regulations. We present retrospective and prospective analysis of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emissions for the New York State’s power sector. Based on our findings, although the intensity varies by period and emission type, in aggregate, fossil fuel mix change can be defined as the main contributor to reduce emissions. Electricity generation level variations and technical efficiency have relatively smaller impacts. We also observe that increased emissions due to nuclear phase-out will be avoided by the onshore and offshore wind with a lower fraction met by solar until 2050.