Science Inventory

Contribution of Offshore Wind to the Power Grid: U.S. Air Quality Implications

Citation:

Browning, M. AND C. Lenox. Contribution of Offshore Wind to the Power Grid: U.S. Air Quality Implications. Applied Energy. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands, 276:115474, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115474

Impact/Purpose:

The pipeline for OSW development in the U.S. is growing and the research about the technical feasibility is robust, but we are missing the forward-looking research to assess how this technology will fit in, what will be displaced and when, and how it might affect our air quality and emissions goals. This research characterizes OSW within this context to show how the grid’s generation mix will change and the impact these changes will have on air quality.

Description:

Offshore wind is an established technology in Europe and Asia, but it has not yet gained market share in the United States. There is, however, increasing interest in offshore wind development in many coastal regions of the United States. As offshore wind grows in those regions it will displace existing and future electric generation assets, which will lead to changes in the emissions from the electric power sector. This research explores combinations of two electric sector drivers, offshore wind capital costs and carbon dioxide (CO2) caps, to measure the changes in the energy mix and quantify offshore wind’s impact on electric sector emissions. An energy system modeling approach is applied, using a nested parametric sensitivity analysis, to generate and explore potential energy futures and analyze the air quality and greenhouse gas emissions benefits of offshore wind as an energy source. The analysis shows that offshore wind capacity was added due to cost reductions more than CO2 cap stringency, though both increased capacity additions. Capacity varied more by CO2 cap stringency at higher prices and less at lower prices. CO2 mitigation led to reductions in all five emissions investigated, regardless of offshore wind cost. Offshore wind-specific reductions were only consistent across all CO2 caps for CO2 and methane (CH4), though offshore wind-specific reductions were found for all emissions in the absence of CO2 caps. Results are presented nationally, analyzing the differences in adoption of offshore wind and how this technology provides a broader range of emission reduction options for the power sector.