You are here:
Effects of Decarbonization Efforts on Future Air Pollution Disparities Across the U.S. (AGU)
Citation:
Wang, P., N. Scovronick, M. Budolfson, D. Loughlin, S. Smith, G. Iyer, AND W. Peng. Effects of Decarbonization Efforts on Future Air Pollution Disparities Across the U.S. (AGU). AGU Fall Meeting 2023, San Francisco, CA, December 11 - 15, 2023.
Impact/Purpose:
The conventional wisdom is that decarbonization measures will yield air quality and health benefits. For a particular location, the sign and magnitude of these benefits could be very different depending on wide ranging factors, including proximity to existing and new sources of air pollutants as well as atmospheric transport and chemistry. As a result, there may be disparities in who benefits from air quality co-benefits of decarbonization. This study delves into this question of disparity.
Description:
Air pollution is a significant public health concern in the United States, with minority and low-income populations facing disproportionately high exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5). As the nation and the world strive to decarbonize the economy, it is crucial to assess the potential impact on air pollution disparities. This study aimed to investigate the effects of national and global decarbonization efforts on future air pollution disparities within the United States. Two key drivers were considered: i) domestic decarbonization efforts represented by two emission trajectories (one with business-as-usual emissions and another with net-zero GHG emissions by 2050) and ii) global decarbonization efforts represented by two future meteorological conditions (one following current trends and another reflecting a warming future consistent with RCP8.5). To assess the impact on air quality, we develop a coupled energy-emissions-pollution model by combining a state-level integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) with fine-scale emissions and air quality modeling using WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry at a high spatial resolution of 12 by 12 kilometers). The core finding of this study indicates that domestic decarbonization efforts can reduce PM2.5 and ozone (O3) exposure levels for all population groups across the country. However, despite these efforts, current pollution disparities are projected to persist in future scenarios. Minority and low-income counties are expected to continue facing higher PM2.5 concentrations, although they may experience lower O3 concentrations. In addition, different meteorological conditions as a result of global decarbonization efforts could change the geographic patterns of future pollution and socio-demographic disparities. This result highlights the complex interactions between domestic and global actions since future pollution disparities are collectively shaped by emissions, meteorological and socio-economic factors. The insights gained from understanding the potential impacts of decarbonization on air quality disparities are vital for formulating effective and equitable environmental policies, thus paving the way for a healthier and sustainable future for all.
