Description:
While there may in many cases be high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from a source, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually, uncertainties are divided among parameters, model, and modeler during simulation, where inaccuracy in model predictions results principally from lack of knowledge and data across this realm. In comparison, sensitivity analysis can lead to a better understanding of how models respond to variation in their inputs, which in turn can be used to better focus laboratory and field-based data collection efforts on processes and parameters contributing most to uncertainty in outcomes of interest. There is a general need to both describe uncertainty for the current state of science and data, and, further, to ascertain a prioritized agenda for the reduction of this uncertainty. This must be facilitated across a broad suite of application purposes for models of widely varying complexity, each with varying dimensionality needed to describe variability in time, space, and population membership.
Uncertainty analysis allows for the critical task of making informed decisions in the present, based on accumulated knowledge and data. This is complemented by the many powers of sensitivity analysis to inform directions for both data collection and model improvement for specific purposes. Quantitative analysis of integrated, very high order multimedia models will ultimately require a comparative model evaluation approach using several algorithmic techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power.
Residing within the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES), the Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) modeling system is an example, very high order modeling system being developed by EPA for use in assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. 3MRA currently encompasses 966 variables, over 185 of which are stochastic. A characteristic of uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA) for very high order models (VHOMs) like 3MRA is their need for significant computational capacity to perform relatively redundant simulations. While UA/SA is emerging as a critical area for environmental model evaluation, resources for Windows-based models have been limited by an associated lack of supercomputing capacity. Equally, higher-order UA/SA algorithms warrant investigation to determine their efficacy in establishing requisite confidence in the use of VHOMs for regulatory decision-making.
This task delivers a PC-based, Windows-based supercomputing capability to facilitate UA/SA research. It also provides short-term and long-term plans for development and integration of a robust, functional UA/SA tool set within FRAMES (and other frameworks) for evaluation of VHOMs and simpler models, and associated applications.
Keywords:
UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, MULTIMEDIA, EXPOSURE, RISK, WASTE STREAMS, SUPERCOMPUTING,
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Project Information:
Progress
:An initial PC-based supercomputing hardware and software infrastructure has been developed (180 PC nodes) which comprises the SuperMUSE cluster and various UA/SA capabilities for very high order models. These tool sets subsequently are being used to facilitate ongoing UA/SA methods research, applications, and model evaluation tasking.
A final FRAMES 3MRA Version 1.0 modeling system was provided to OSW in July 2003. 3MRA Version 1.0, including many elements of this UA/SA research plan, also underwent extensive peer-review in FY03/FY04 by a 16-member panel of the Science Advisory Board (SAB). Included as part of this peer-review where four major products developed under this task:
Quality assurance testing and debugging of 3MRA Version 1.0 prior to public release in July 2003, including over 40 million modeling system runs.
FY04 APM 197: An initial, example UA/SA of 3MRA for 7 chemicals.
FY04 APM 269: Overview of SuperMUSE hardware and software for Windows/Linux-based parallel computing.
Volume IV of V of an integrated documentation package developed to facilitate the SAB's peer-review of 3MRA, including a comprehensive multi-year UA/SA plan for 3MRA for national-scale model applications.
The SAB review, to be released in late October, 2004 essentially gave ERD high marks on both 3MRA, SuperMUSE, and UA/SA related research, with recommendations to improve specific elements of 3MRA over-time, and to carry-out the UA/SA plan developed for 3MRA.
Several contracts were also put into place to facilitate continued SuperMUSE system software refinement and additional UA/SA tool development. ERD also continued its participation in the ISCMEM MOU for Multimedia Environmental Modeling comprised of 8 Federal Agencies. As a specific outcome of this task's work and the MOU, ERD was a lead co-organizer in a successful International Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, and Parameter Estimation held in August 2003. An associated NERL Abstract was released in early FY04 and full proceedings of the workshop will be released in October 2004.
Relevance
:Products already developed under this task were critical to ORD's delivery of 3MRA Version 1.0 to the public and the successful outcome of the SAB's peer-review. In the future, extensive model evaluation will be a requisite decision-making component needed to analyze performance in achieving environmental benefits, which should drive a continued commitment to this program. To improve the overall efficiency of regulatory programs, this tasking, in joint support of OSW and ORD missions, will allow EPA to improve models and regulatory programs through better characterization of model sensitivities and uncertainties. This work directly supports multimedia modeling, sound science and performance-based impact analysis for major initiatives currently being undertaken by our client offices (e.g., WMPC study for OSW). Results from strategically complementary approaches being investigated under Task 16346 will in many ways begin to form a technical basis by which to better drive the overall LTG research planning process, eventually driving hazardous waste identification approaches and OSWER's One Cleanup Initiative geared towards management of contaminated sites under RCRA, Superfund, Brownfields, and Mega-Sites.
Major Clients: OSWER - Stephen Kroner, Regions
Major External Collaborators: This research and development is conducted as part of a formal partnership agreement with the Office of Solid Waste (OSW). Lead contact persons are Gary Ballard (Director) and Jan Young (Deputy Director) and OSW staff (Stephen Kroner, Zubair Saleem) at the Economics, Methods, and Risk Analysis Division. In addition to work with DOE-PNNL and various collaborations with several internationally renowned UA/SA experts, this task also contributes heavily to and benefits from cooperative work with nine other agencies under the auspices of a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for multimedia modeling.
Clients
:OSWER, Office of Solid Waste (OSW) - Stephen Kroner; Regions
Project IDs:
ID Code
:16346
Project type
:OMIS