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A multidimensional density dependent matrix population model for assessing risk of stressors to fish populations
Citation:
Miller, D., B. Clark, AND D. Nacci. A multidimensional density dependent matrix population model for assessing risk of stressors to fish populations. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 201:1-8, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2020.110786
Impact/Purpose:
Population modeling is an important tool to translate the effects of chemicals or other stressors on organisms, to adverse effects on their populations. Information observed for the individual organism and the measures of the organism’s biology can be utilized as inputs that translate to population level outcomes. The fish population model developed in this study incorporated a novel approach using both the sizes of the fish in the population and their ages to obtain a prediction of the trajectory of the population over time in response to exposure to different concentrations of a dioxin that is a well-known historical environmental contaminant. Furthermore, formulation of the model allows for scenarios investigating multiple stressors including those affecting fish growth. This novel population modeling approach can provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for future generations.
Description:
Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. Herein, we develop a novel multidimensional density dependent matrix population model that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population simultaneously over time. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical and/or nonchemical stressors to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. For demonstration purposes, we applied the model to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) exposed to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzop-dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. The Atlantic killifish is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. For each exposure concentration, the corresponding plots of total population size, population size structure, and age structure over time were generated. For example, exposure to 875 pg/g of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzop-dioxin resulted in a 13.1% decline in population size after 2 years, a 22.1% decline in population size after 5 years, and a 27.9% decline in population size over 10 years with plots of all size classes and age classes exhibiting declines. The present study serves as an example of how multidimensional matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for multiple generations.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: A multidimensional density dependent matrix population model for assessing risk of stressors to fish populations