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Developing integral projection models for aquatic ecotoxicology
Citation:
Pollesch, N. Developing integral projection models for aquatic ecotoxicology. Midwest Mathematical Biology Conference, LaCrosse, WI, May 19 - 20, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
There is a necessary gap between laboratory derived toxicity measures and ecologically-scaled outcomes from chemical exposure. Population-level ecological risk assessment uses mathematical and statistical structures to encode relationships between standard laboratory toxicity data and population level endpoints of regulatory concern. The Fish Translator integral projection model is a new tool for ecotoxicological modeling that takes traditional matrix population modeling a step further by developing and utilizing size-dependent relationships to aid in extrapolating both acute and chronic effects observed in laboratory studies to relevant ecological scales.
Description:
Extrapolating laboratory measured effects of chemicals to ecologically relevant scales is a fundamental challenge in ecotoxicology. In addition to influencing survival in the wild (e.g., over-winter survival) size has been shown to control onset of reproduction for the toxicologically relevant Fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas). We develop a size-structured integral projection model to incorporate the effects of chemical and non-chemical stressors on demography. Multiple formulations for transition kernels are presented and compared using lab and field measurements of fathead minnow.