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Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates
Citation:
Isik, M., R. Dodder, AND Pervin Kaplanakman. Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates. Nature Energy. Springer Nature, New York, NY, 6:92-104, (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00740-2
Impact/Purpose:
Like many cities around the world, New York City is establishing policies to reduce CO2 emissions from all energy sectors by 2050. Understanding the impact of varying degrees of electric vehicle adoption and CO2 intensities on emissions reduction in the city is critical. Here, using a technology-rich, bottom-up, energy system optimization model, we analyse the cost and air emissions impacts of New York City’s proposed CO2 reduction policies for the transportation sector through a scenario framework. Our analysis reveals that the electrification of light-duty vehicles at earlier periods is essential for deeper reductions in air emissions. When further combined with energy efficiency improvements, these actions contribute to CO2 reductions under the scenarios of more CO2-intense electricity. Substantial reliance on fossil fuels and a need for structural change pose challenges to cost-effective CO2 reductions in the transportation sector. Here we find that uncertainties associated with decarbonization of the electric grid have a minimum influence on the cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction pathways for the transportation sector.
Description:
Cities around the world are setting targets and establishing pathways to decrease carbon emissions by 2030 and beyond from all energy sectors including transportation. New York City (NYC) is one of the leading cities to set 80 percent reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050, also broader New York State (NYS) is transitioning to clean energy. The goal of this study is to leverage a newly developed full energy system model specific to NYC and apply proposed carbon emission reduction policies. EPANYC6r is a technology rich, community level, energy-environment-economic bottom-up optimization model. This modeling incorporates and compares strategies across transportation modes and other sectors such as buildings, while accounting for changing electric grid technology and fuel mix. We hypothesize that the carbon emission rate levels of the electric sector in the future will influence how NYC could achieve its emission reduction goals. To test the hypothesis, we designed a scenario framework with various levels of grid decarbonization and end-use sector reduction targets including more aggressive vehicle electrification. Counterintuitively, we found electrification of the light duty vehicles at earlier periods under scenarios of higher electric grid carbon emissions rates resulted in deeper reductions in air emissions such as NOx in the transportation sector. In addition, fuel switching from diesel to compressed natural gas was more prevalent in the public transit (e.g., buses) and heavy-duty vehicle fleet. The sustainability of alternative transportation energy policies will depend on their impact on the other environmental end-points such as air quality.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates