Main Title |
Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Long-Term Simulations of Lake Alkalinity. |
Author |
Lee, S. ;
Georgakakos, K. P. ;
Schnoor, J. L. ;
|
CORP Author |
Iowa Univ., Iowa City.;Corvallis Environmental Research Lab., OR. |
Publisher |
c1990 |
Year Published |
1990 |
Report Number |
EPA/600/J-90/473; |
Stock Number |
PB91-182170 |
Additional Subjects |
Alkalinity ;
Lakes ;
Water chemistry ;
Water pollution effects ;
Probability theory ;
New York ;
Acidification ;
Deposition ;
Lake Woods ;
Lake Panther ;
pH ;
Case studies ;
Wet methods ;
Dry methods ;
Soil surveys ;
Air water interactions ;
Weathering ;
Reaction kinetics ;
Reprints ;
Adirondack Park ;
Enhanced Trickle-Down Model
|
Holdings |
Library |
Call Number |
Additional Info |
Location |
Last Modified |
Checkout Status |
NTIS |
PB91-182170 |
Some EPA libraries have a fiche copy filed under the call number shown. |
|
07/26/2022 |
|
Collation |
11p |
Abstract |
A first-order second-moment uncertainty analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, to assess the long-term response of lakes to acid deposition. Uncertainty due to parameter error and initial condition error was considered. Because the enhanced trickle-down (ETD) model is calibrated with only 3 years of field data and is used to simulate a 50-year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. When a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the annual average alkalinity is predicted to be -11 + or - 28 microeq/L for Lake Woods and 142 + or - 139 microeq/L for Lake Panther after 50 years. Hydrologic parameters and chemical weathering rate constants contributed most to the uncertainty of the simulations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in long-range predictions of lake alkalinity increased significantly over a 5- to 10-year period and then reached a steady state. (Copyright (c) 1990 by the American Geophysical Union.) |
Supplementary Notes |
Pub. in Water Resources Research, v26 n3 p459-467. Sponsored by Corvallis Environmental Research Lab., OR. |
NTIS Title Notes |
Journal article. |
Title Annotations |
Reprint: Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Long-Term Simulations of Lake Alkalinity. |
Category Codes |
48G; 68D; 99F |
NTIS Prices |
PC A03/MF A01 |
Primary Description |
600/02 |
Document Type |
NT |
Cataloging Source |
NTIS/MT |
Control Number |
117926940 |
Origin |
NTIS |
Type |
CAT |