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RECORD NUMBER: 42 OF 65

OLS Field Name OLS Field Data
Main Title Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis /
Author Lempert, Robert J.
Other Authors
Author Title of a Work
Popper, Steven W.
Bankes, Steven C.
Publisher RAND,
Year Published 2003
Report Number MR-1626-RPC
Stock Number $30.00
OCLC Number 52430735
ISBN 0833032755; 9780833032751
Subjects System analysis. ; Decision making. ; Information technology.
Internet Access
Description Access URL
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1626/
Table of contents http://www.gbv.de/dms/sub-hamburg/368510174.pdf
Holdings
Library Call Number Additional Info Location Last
Modified
Checkout
Status
EJBM  T57.6.L46 2003 Headquarters Library/Washington,DC 07/06/2005
Collation xxi, 187 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 23 cm
Notes
"MR-1626." Includes bibliographical references.
Contents Notes
"The checkered history of predicting the future--e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty."