||Subjective-Probability-Based Scenarios for Uncertain Input Parameters: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, December 1990.
Hammitt, J. K. ;
||RAND Corp., Santa Monica, CA.;Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
Ozone depletion ;
Computerized simulation ;
Mathematical models ;
Risk assessment ;
Probability theory ;
Probability density functions ;
Monte Carlo method ;
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The paper presents and applies a method to choose sets of input conditions (scenarios) that efficiently represent knowledge about the joint probability distribution of inputs. A simple score function approximately relating inputs to a policy-relevant output--in this case, globally averaged stratospheric ozone depletion--is developed. The probability density function for the score-function value is analytically derived from a subjective joint probability density for the inputs. Scenarios are defined by selected quantiles of the score function. Using this method, scenarios can be systematically selected in terms of the approximate probability distribution function for the output of concern, and probability intervals for the joint effect of the inputs can be readily constructed.