||Design of Optimal Precipitation Networks.
Grayma, Walter M. ;
Eagleso, Peter S. ;
||Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge. Ralph M. Parsons Lab. for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics.
||R73-20 ;168; DI-14-31-0001-3403; OWRR-C-2137(3403) ;MIT-DSR-72892; C-2137(3403)(6),; 03333
Flood forecasting ;
Warning systems ;
Rain gages ;
Susquehanna River ;
Benefit cost analysis ;
Mathematical models ;
Hydrographic surveys ;
Computer programs ;
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The design of a precipitation measuring network based on the cost of the network and the benefits derived from the measurements is demonstrated. A single objective, maximize net national income and a single purpose use of the measurements in a flood warning system form the basis for the analysis. Two models are developed to determine the net benefits resulting from a particular network design. One model is a simulation model in which a trace of floods is generated, the error in flood prediction as a result of precipitation measurements is simulated and the net benefits are calculated. A second model is based on the convolution of probability distributions to determine the expected value of net benefits. A case study is performed in which the expected value model is used to determine the optimal precipitation measuring system for a river basin based on data representing the West Branch of the Susquehanna River. This study indicates the importance of considering network accuracy in the design of the netowrk and in determination of the feasibility of a flood warning system. (Modified author abstract)