||Bayesian Decision Framework for Synthetic Hydrology.
Walli, James R. ;
O'Connel, P. Enda ;
||IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, N.Y.
||DI-14-31-0001-9019; OWRR-C-4094(9019); 02438,; C-4094(9019)(1)
Stream flow ;
Time series analysis ;
Bayes theorem ;
Statistical decision theory ;
Mathematical models ;
Markov processes ;
Parameter estimation ;
Bayesian decision theory
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Given that the large uncertainty in the amount of persistence that should be incorporated into synthetic hydrology it is believed that a Bayes risk decision theoretic approach would be the optimal strategy for water resource system designers. A methodology and example of use of this concept is given.