Main Title |
Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis / |
Author |
Lempert, Robert J.
|
Other Authors |
|
Publisher |
RAND, |
Year Published |
2003 |
Report Number |
MR-1626-RPC |
Stock Number |
$30.00 |
OCLC Number |
52430735 |
ISBN |
0833032755; 9780833032751 |
Subjects |
System analysis ;
Decision making ;
Information technology
|
Internet Access |
|
Holdings |
Library |
Call Number |
Additional Info |
Location |
Last Modified |
Checkout Status |
EJBM |
T57.6.L46 2003 |
|
Headquarters Library/Washington,DC |
07/06/2005 |
|
Collation |
xxi, 187 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 23 cm |
Notes |
"MR-1626." Includes bibliographical references. |
Contents Notes |
"The checkered history of predicting the future--e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty." |