Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50% to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated by either (1) competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes, or (2) drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, thus determining the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including explicit simulation of potential evapotranspiration, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.