||Application of Decision Analysis to Toxic Substances: Proposed Methodology and Two Case Studies.
Campbell, Gregory L. ;
Cohan, David ;
North, D. Warner ;
||Decision Focus, Inc., Palo Alto, CA.;Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances.
||EPA-68-01-6054; DFI-1084-0; EPA-560/4-82-003;
Decision making ;
Environmental surveys ;
Public health ;
Laboratory animals ;
Economic analysis ;
Dry cleaning ;
Toxic Substance Control Act ;
Phthalic acid/bis(ethyl/hexyl-ester) ;
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The research report investigates the use of decision analysis as an aid to decisions on toxic substances regulation. Part I of this report includes a literature survey on decision analysis and related methods for quantitative analysis and an exposition of the proposed methodology. Parts II and III illustrate the decision analysis approach on two chemicals, perchloroethylene (PCE) and di-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP). The PCE case study illustrates how uncertainties in the potential chronic health effects of a chemical may be quantitatively described in a way that makes use of bioassay data and scientific judgment on the extrapolation of the dose response relationship from animals to humans. The PCE analysis includes a comparison of control options to workers, service users, and the general public, showing the potential impact on health for each group and comparing expected health benefits to control costs. The value of better information to resolve health effect uncertainties is computed and compared to the cost of large-scale animal tests. The DEHP analysis illustrates an economic analysis of regulatory costs based on interproduct substitution among DEHP and competing plasticizers.