Record Display for the EPA National Library Catalog


Main Title Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Long-Term Simulations of Lake Alkalinity.
Author Lee, S. ; Georgakakos, K. P. ; Schnoor, J. L. ;
CORP Author Iowa Univ., Iowa City.;Corvallis Environmental Research Lab., OR.
Publisher c1990
Year Published 1990
Report Number EPA/600/J-90/473;
Stock Number PB91-182170
Additional Subjects Alkalinity ; Lakes ; Water chemistry ; Water pollution effects ; Probability theory ; New York ; Acidification ; Deposition ; Lake Woods ; Lake Panther ; pH ; Case studies ; Wet methods ; Dry methods ; Soil surveys ; Air water interactions ; Weathering ; Reaction kinetics ; Reprints ; Adirondack Park ; Enhanced Trickle-Down Model
Library Call Number Additional Info Location Last
NTIS  PB91-182170 Some EPA libraries have a fiche copy filed under the call number shown. 07/26/2022
Collation 11p
A first-order second-moment uncertainty analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, to assess the long-term response of lakes to acid deposition. Uncertainty due to parameter error and initial condition error was considered. Because the enhanced trickle-down (ETD) model is calibrated with only 3 years of field data and is used to simulate a 50-year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. When a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the annual average alkalinity is predicted to be -11 + or - 28 microeq/L for Lake Woods and 142 + or - 139 microeq/L for Lake Panther after 50 years. Hydrologic parameters and chemical weathering rate constants contributed most to the uncertainty of the simulations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in long-range predictions of lake alkalinity increased significantly over a 5- to 10-year period and then reached a steady state. (Copyright (c) 1990 by the American Geophysical Union.)