Caption title. At head of title: Project summary. "Sept. 1983." "EPA/600-S3-82-031."

Trends in demand for agricultural production and agricultural technology in the United States suggest increasing pressure on the nation's land and water resources over the next several decades. The expected consequences would be rising economic costs of production and damages to the environment. This study analyzes these trends, assesses their economic and environmental impacts, and discusses policies for dealing with their impacts. The quantities of land, water, and other resources farmers use to increase production depend basically on the kinds of technologies they employ. Two categories of technology are distinguished; land-using technologies and land-saving technologies. Farmers' choices from the spectrum of technologies are conditioned by the prices and productivities of the alternatives. The present trend to land-using technologies should continue if energy and fertilizer prices increase as expected. Analysis of trends indicates that an additional 60 to 70 million acres will be brought into production by 2010 and that erosion will emerge as the most serious environmental problem of agriculture. Erosion on the projected scale would pose a significant threat to national water quality as well as to the productivity of the land. A slower rise in inputs of fertilizer per acre is expected and the total quantity of insecticide applied to crops should decline. Herbicide use is expected to decrease markedly. More effective programs to gain farmer cooperation in controlling erosion may be required along with research to develop new technologies that serve both the farmers' economic interest and the social interest in reducing environmental damages. Development of improved land-saving technologies, such as a higher yielding variety of soybean, would reduce pressure on the land.