Grantee Research Project Results
2014 Progress Report: Forecasting and Evaluating Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change, Extreme Events, and Algal Blooms
EPA Grant Number: R835203Title: Forecasting and Evaluating Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change, Extreme Events, and Algal Blooms
Investigators: Stevenson, R. Jan , Hyndman, David , Qi, Jiaguo , Moore, Nathan
Institution: Michigan State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2012 through May 31, 2017
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 11, 2014 through January 10,2015
Project Amount: $749,801
RFA: Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate (2011) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Water Quality , Climate Change , Air , Water
Objective:
Our project is organized in three major tasks with three subtasks under each major task. The first major task was to identify historical algal blooms and statistically investigate how these relate to extreme events across a range of hydrologic regimes. The second major task was to use process-based hydrology and algae models to explore causal linkages between extreme events and algal blooms, and predict the influence of projected climate changes on algal biomass. The third major task was to develop statistical models that can be applied nationwide to examine vulnerabilities to extreme events under different management strategies.
Progress Summary:
We asked and received a no-cost extension of the project on April 2, 2015, that extended the project deadline from May 31, 2015, to May 31, 2017. Our project requires using historic satellite images with as much as 50 years of satellite data to characterize algal abundance in lakes. We have been delayed with the remote sensing part of the project, which we had not anticipated being as much of a problem as it has been. Algorithms for estimating lake chlorophyll a with satellite data have not been as useful as we had expected. The project period extension will allow us to complete the project with the extended funding period.
We reviewed the project Tasks and Subtasks and the corresponding project schedule. We kept the outline of Tasks and Subtasks and fit them to a new schedule.
According to our schedule, we should have started work on Tasks 1 and 2, which need to be substantially completed before we can start Task 3. Progress on Task 1 will be described in this report. No new significant progress has been made on Task 2 compared to the last report.
Future Activities:
We plan to finish Task 1 and Subtasks 2a, 2b and 3a. We will make substantial progress on Subtasks 2c, 3b and 3c, which will put us in a position to finish Tasks 1 and 2, and then Task 3 by the end of the project period.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 7 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
Extreme events, phytoplankton, algal blooms, water quality, lakes, nutrient management, water, drinking water, watersheds, ground water, land, soil, global climate, precipitation, ecological effects, vulnerability, ecosystem, indicators, restoration, regionalization, scaling, aquatic, public policy, decision making, ecology, hydrology, geology, limnology, modeling, measurement methods, climate models, climate change, satellite, landsat, remote sensingProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- Final Report
- 2016 Progress Report
- 2015 Progress Report
- 2013 Progress Report
- 2012 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
7 journal articles for this project