Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: The Spatial Patterning of Land Use Conversion: Linking Economics, Hydrology and Ecology to Evaluate the Effects of Alternative Future Growth Scenarios on Stream Ecosystems
EPA Grant Number: R828012Title: The Spatial Patterning of Land Use Conversion: Linking Economics, Hydrology and Ecology to Evaluate the Effects of Alternative Future Growth Scenarios on Stream Ecosystems
Investigators: Palmer, Margaret A. , Moglen, Glenn E. , Ness, Keith Van , Wiegand, Cameron , Bockstael, Nancy
Current Investigators: Palmer, Margaret A. , Moglen, Glenn E. , Pizzuto, J. E. , Ness, Keith Van , Wiegand, Cameron , Bockstael, Nancy
Institution: University of Maryland - College Park
Current Institution: University of Maryland - College Park , Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection , University of Delaware
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2000 through May 31, 2003 (Extended to May 31, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2001 through May 31, 2002
Project Amount: $1,125,212
RFA: Water and Watersheds (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Watersheds , Water
Objective:
The goal of this research project is to determine how the timing, rate, and spatial configuration of land conversion influences stream habitat and ecosystem health in four Maryland watersheds. We are contrasting two watersheds (Paint Branch and Northwest Branch) characterized by older development close to Washington DC, with two watersheds (Hawlings and Cattail) in the rapidly expanding rural-urban fringe of Montgomery and Howard Counties, MD. Our research team consists of academicians from the fields of ecology, economics, hydrology, and geomorphology as well as local government scientists and policymakers. Our work is proceeding in three phases. Phase I has been a major interdisciplinary effort to identify the conceptual relationship between land use change, hydrological change, geomorphic change, and stream ecosystem structure and function.
Our approach was influenced by scientists who participated in three workshops at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California in Santa Barbara. Phase II involves two large efforts that are nearing completion. One effort is to collect and compile new and existing data on land use and the ecological and geomorphologic conditions at 60 sites (we increased the number of sites this year from 65 to 70) across our four study watersheds that differ in the extent and pattern of development. The other effort is to assemble newly available and existing data on human-induced changes in land use over the past decade for the region. These 65 watershed sites were selected to span a range of land uses and watershed sizes, and are arranged around tributary confluences so that we can assess the cumulative impacts of land use at strategic points in the river network. Most of Phase II has been completed, but some of the land use data is still being evaluated. Phase III will require using our data in conjunction with new or existing theories to develop statistical models to predict relationships between current land use, stream morphology and bed characteristics, discharge and stream structure, and functional response variables. These response variables include: fish diversity and abundance (for which Montgomery County has conducted all the sampling), invertebrate diversity and abundance, water quality, habitat characteristics, nutrient uptake rates, whole stream metabolism, primary production, and rates of decomposition. This is a large portion of the project and will require the better part of our third year of work.
Progress Summary:
We have completed the construction of a dynamic data set for 6 counties in Maryland that includes the land development history of the counties from the early 1990s through 2000. Information relevant to the development decision (e.g., natural features of the landscape such as wetlands, floodplains, topology, and soils as well as regulations that vary both over time and over space) is being attached to all developable parcels. These are critical elements in understanding why and how development has occurred. We have been testing hypotheses about the efficacy of many growth control policies, including the effect on neighboring land use decisions of open space requirements, the effect on land use pattern of Howard County's clustering and low density zoning, and the imposition of adequate public facilities moratoria. In the process of testing for these effects, we have made progress on two methodological fronts (regression discontinuity methods that help to establish quasi-experiments using actual historical data; extending spatial econometric analysis to discrete choice models).
Hydrology efforts have focused on the refinement of our high spatial and temporal resolution model of land use change and its consequent effects on peak flow behavior (see Moglen and Beighley, 2002). Further, we have developed and calibrated a continuous streamflow model sensitive to dynamically varying land use and climate. Finally, we have installed five streamflow gages across our study sites to aid in the calibration of our models and to help quantify the effects of varying land use distributions on both low and high flows. Geomorphic efforts have involved the completion of field surveys at 62 sites, providing a comprehensive data set on the morphology of stream channels with different drainage basin, land use composition, and spatial patterning of land use. We also have mapped the elevation of a buried soil horizon in the floodplain sediments at each of the sites, providing an objective datum for determining the channel width, depth, and cross-sectional area and providing a means for reaching some comparative conclusions regarding the pristine and modified channel morphology. We also have continued to develop a watershed scale model of geomorphic evolution of stream channels and floodplains. The reach scale model has been completed; it currently simulates changes in width, depth, and the extent of lateral migration.
Ecological efforts during the past year have included bringing to completion 90 percent of the sampling. We have developed site-specific techniques for measuring many ecological structural attributes at each site and methods for measuring ecological functional attributes such as open channel in situ primary production and community respiration (i.e., diel O2 curves corrected for re-aeration). We also have a growing database that relates land use to hydraulic retention and nitrogen and phosphorus uptake velocities (determined empirically in our four watersheds by comparing nutrient transport to that of a conservative tracer). Results have been presented at national and international conferences and are being prepared for publication. We also have tracked the structural and functional responses for three restoration projects (pre- vs. post-sampling of restored and reference sites) that were initiated by our Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection collaborators over the last 2 years.
Future Activities:
The hydrological modeling efforts will continue to focus on modeling changes in low-flow behavior and water quality as a function of changing land use. Geomorphic modeling work will continue to focus on prediction of ecologically relevant geomorphic parameters based on land use and site context. For the ecological work, field sites associated with restoration projects will be revisited in fall 2002-2003. Finally, we will complete a statistical analysis of the data and the developing predictive relationships. Our entire team is now poised to bring data together from hydrology, geomorphology, economics, and ecology to address the relationship between current hydrologic, geomorphic, land use, and ecological conditions. Specifically, we are beginning our work on a very complicated statistical analysis of the relationship between current land use, stream morphology and bed characteristics, discharge and stream structure, and functional response variables. These response variables include: fish diversity and abundance (for which Montgomery County has conducted all the sampling), invertebrate diversity and abundance, water quality, habitat characteristics, nutrient uptake rates, whole stream metabolism, primary production, and rates of decomposition. This is a very massive portion of the project and will require the better part of our third year of work.
Montgomery County scientists and University of Maryland staff will continue to work together on biomonitoring as long as funds last; we particularly wish to focus on the restoration sites to determine bmp effectiveness.
Journal Articles on this Report : 12 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 90 publications | 29 publications in selected types | All 17 journal articles |
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Lewicki M, Pizzuto JE. Routing washload through channel networks: a numerical approach. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 2002;83(47), Fall Meeting Suppl., Abstract H21C-0819. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Fleming MM. Techniques for estimating spatially dependent discrete choice models. In: Anselin L, Florax RJGM, Rey SJ, eds. Advances in Spatial Econometrics: Methodology, Tools and Applications. New York, NY: Springer, 2004, Ch. 7, pp. 145-168. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Irwin EG, Bell K. Modeling and managing urban growth at the rural urban fringe: evidence from residential land use change in Central Maryland. In: Bell K, Boyle K, Plantinga A, Rubin J, Teisl M, eds. The Economics of Rural Land Use Change. Ashgate Press, 2006, pp. 147-162. |
R828012 (2001) |
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Moglen GE. Frequency analysis under non-stationary land use conditions. In: McCuen RH, ed. Modeling Hydrologic Change:Statistical Methods. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2002, Ch. 13, pp. 367-385. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Beighley RE, Moglen GE. Adjusting measured peak discharges from an urbanizing watershed to reflect a stationary land use signal. Water Resources Research 2003;39(4):1093, doi:10.1029/2002WR001846. |
R828012 (2000) R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Benda LE, Poff LN, Tague C, Palmer MA, Pizzuto J, Cooper S, Stanley E, Moglen G. How to avoid train wrecks when using science in environmental problem solving. Bioscience 2002;52(12):1127-1136. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Bockstael NE, Irwin EG. Public policy and the changing landscape. Estuaries 2003;26(2):210-225. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Fleming MM. Spatial statistics and econometrics for models in fisheries economics: discussion. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2000;82(5):1207-1209. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Gabriel SA, Faria JA, Moglen GE. A multiobjective optimization approach to smart growth in land development. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2006;40(3):212-248. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Moglen GE, Beighley RE. Spatially explicit hydrologic modeling of land use change. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2002;38(1):241-253. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Moglen GE, Gabriel SA, Faria JA. A framework for quantitative smart growth in land development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2003;39(4):947-959. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Nilsson C, Pizzuto JE, Moglen GE, Palmer MA, Stanley EH, Bockstael NE, Thompson LC. Ecological forecasting and running water systems: challenges for economists, hydrologists, geomorphologists, and ecologists. Ecosystems 2003;6(7):659-674. |
R828012 (2001) R828012 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
water, watersheds, ecological effects, geomorphology, sediment transport, erosion, deposition, river morphology, sensitive populations, population, cumulative effects, ecosystem, indicators, restoration, regionalization, scaling, terrestrial, aquatic, habitat, integrated assessment, public policy, decisionmaking, community-based, cost benefit, conservation, environmental assets, ecology, monitoring, analytical, surveys, measurement methods, Northeast, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Montgomery County, EPA Region 3, MAIA., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Hydrology, Water & Watershed, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, State, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecology and Ecosystems, Watersheds, spatial water quality assessment systems, ecosystem assessment, stream ecosystems, alternative future growth scenarios, Maryland (MD), predictive model, stream management, geomorphic, ecosystem, ecosystem health, water quality, ecology assessment models, public policy, land use, econometricsRelevant Websites:
http://watersheds.umd.edu Exithttp://askdep.com Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.