Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Households, Consumption, and Energy Use: The Role of Demographic Change in Future U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
EPA Grant Number: R829801Title: Households, Consumption, and Energy Use: The Role of Demographic Change in Future U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Investigators: ONeill, Brian , Prskawetz, Alexia , Leiwen, Jiang , Pitkin, John , Dalton, Michael
Current Investigators: ONeill, Brian , Dalton, Michael , Prskawetz, Alexia , Pitkin, John , Leiwen, Jiang
Institution: Brown University
Current Institution: Brown University , California State University - Monterey Bay , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: September 1, 2002 through September 30, 2005 (Extended to September 30, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2002 through September 30, 2003
Project Amount: $279,015
RFA: Futures: Research in Socio-Economics (2001) RFA Text
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Objective:
The primary objective of the proposed research is to determine whether expected changes in the composition of the U.S. population by household type over the next 25-100 years will have a substantial influence on total energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Specific aims for achieving this overall goal are to: (1) develop a set of long-term household projections that characterize plausible ranges of the future distribution of households by size, age, composition, and other demographic characteristics, including nativity; (2) quantify how consumption patterns vary across households of different types; and (3) introduce disaggregated household types into an existing energy-economic growth model of the United States to test the effect of accounting for demographic heterogeneity in energy and emissions projections, including the potential effects of alternative immigration scenarios.
Progress Summary:
We have made progress toward all three of our specific aims. An important weakness of existing work on the potential effect of changes in household size and composition on consumption patterns is that there has been no credible exploration of the scope for change in living arrangements in the future. We have completed a preliminary set of long-term household projections for the United States. We developed three scenarios aimed at exploring the potential range of population composition by household type, particularly in terms of household size and age composition: (1) medium scenario; (2) large household size and younger age structure (large/young) scenario; and (3) small household size and older age structure (small/old) scenario. The input assumptions varied across the scenarios include mortality, fertility, migration, and union formation and dissolution. Results show that there is a scope for substantial changes in composition by household type. Average household size ranges from 2.1 to 2.9 by the second half of the century (compared to 2.6 in 2000). Age structure varies considerably as well, with the proportion of elderly reaching 20 to 37 percent in 2100 across the scenarios (compared to 11 percent today). We will be undertaking further work to ensure that these scenarios do not underestimate the scope for future change.
We have analyzed Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) data for patterns of consumption across households of different types. This analysis was carried out with the aim of identifying the most appropriate household types and aggregate consumption categories to use within our general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. Our preliminary conclusion is that differentiating households by size (i.e., number of members) and age of householder is a sufficient starting point for capturing major sources of variance in consumption and income patterns across household types. We have constructed three age categories, and 2-3 size categories per age group. In terms of consumption categories, we began with the 17 categories already included in our general equilibrium model and have concluded that reducing this number to 6-9 categories would be sufficient. Most of the CES analysis has been completed. This work involved estimating budget shares for aggregate consumption categories and estimating shares of income, labor, assets, savings, and taxes by household type. In Year 2 of the project, further analysis will be carried out to refine our results (described below). We also have concluded that in future work (outside the scope of the current project) it would be beneficial to draw on other data sources to disaggregate consumption in ways not possible within the CES data. The Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) administered by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) would be particularly useful in this regard.
We have completed modifications to the U.S. module of the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model, an existing multiregion energy-economic model, to account for disaggregated household types. This methodological work provides a necessary basis for bringing together the CES data analysis with the new household projections within a model framework for producing future energy use and emissions scenarios. Work has begun on understanding the dynamic implications within the PET model of operating with households of different types.
Future Activities:
In Year 2 of the project period, we plan further work in each of our three specific aims.
Household projections will be refined by undertaking further analysis of our input assumptions to ensure that we are not being too conservative in estimating the plausible range of future household size and age structure. Finalized scenarios then will be submitted for publication toward the end of Year 2 or the beginning of Year 3 of the project.
The CES data analysis will be refined, particularly on the income side. The CES data are designed for analyzing consumption and are easiest to use for this type of analysis. However for income, assets, and savings, considerably more work is required to produce results. Our Year 1 results need to be refined and checked against other literature using the CES or other data for income-related research.
In addition, we will incorporate the results of the statistical analysis of CES data and the household projections into the modified PET model to perform a sensitivity analysis aimed at measuring the effect of accounting for changes in household distributions, relative to projections that account for changes in population size alone. We aim to prepare a manuscript for submission to a suitable journal by the end of Year 2 or early in Year 3 of the project.
Finally, we note that the analysis of the potential effect of alternative scenarios for immigration on our results will be carried out primarily in Year 3 of the project.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 14 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
population, consumption, emissions, climate change, households, global climate, global climate change, elderly, integrated assessment, socio-economic, social science, demography, modeling, surveys, air, economic, social and behavioral science research program, RFA scientific discipline, ecology and ecosystems, economics, economics and decision-making, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric carbon dioxide, behavior change, carbon emissions, climate variability, demographic, demographics, ecosystem sustainability, energy consumption, energy generation, global warming, greenhouse gases, human dimension, human population growth, population abundance, population environment technology model, socioeconomic indicators., RFA, Air, Scientific Discipline, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Economics & Decision Making, Economics, decision-making, Social Science, climate change, socioeconomic indicators, Global Climate Change, socioeconomics, human population growth, environmental monitoring, population environment technology model, climate variability, energy generation, behavior change, carbon emissions, ecosystem sustainability, human dimension, demographics, atmospheric carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, population abundance, demographic, global warming , energy consumptionProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.