Grantee Research Project Results
Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP) Phase 2: Implications for U.S. Air Quality and Mercury Deposition of Multiple Climate and Global Emission Scenarios for 2000-2050
EPA Grant Number: R833370Title: Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP) Phase 2: Implications for U.S. Air Quality and Mercury Deposition of Multiple Climate and Global Emission Scenarios for 2000-2050
Investigators: Jacob, Daniel J. , Streets, David G. , Mickley, Loretta J. , Byun, Daewon , Rind, David , Seinfeld, John , Fu, Joshua
Institution: Harvard University , California Institute of Technology , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , University of Tennessee , University of Houston , Argonne National Laboratory
Current Institution: Harvard University , Argonne National Laboratory , California Institute of Technology , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , University of Houston , University of Tennessee
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: May 1, 2007 through April 30, 2011
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The objective of GCAP Phase 2 is to better quantify and understand the effects of global change on air quality and mercury deposition in the United States over the coming decades. As the United States tightens its controls on domestic emissions, we need to determine how external perturbations associated with global change may affect the success of these controls. Such external perturbations include changes in climate (driven in particular by greenhouse gas emissions) and changes in pollutant emissions outside North America. We will apply the coupled global-regional model capability developed under GCAP Phase 1 to address three critical issues over the 2000-2050 time horizon: (1) assessment of the potential range of global change impacts on air quality through consideration of multiple scenarios, (2) intercontinental transport of pollution, and (3) mercury deposition to ecosystems, including the role of climate change in perturbing the cycling of mercury between the atmosphere and surface reservoirs.
Approach:
In GCAP Phase 1, we constructed interfaces between the GISS general circulation model, the GEOS-Chem global model of atmospheric composition, and the MM5/CMAQ regional air quality model to produce a powerful and versatile machinery for investigating the effects of climate change on air quality and mercury deposition. In GCAP Phase 2, we will apply this machinery to an ensemble of scenarios for 2000-2050 changes in global greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions. These will include the standard IPCC projections as well as ACCENT projections that assume aggressive pollution controls at northern mid-latitudes. We will construct 2000-2050 global projections of anthropogenic mercury emissions for the IPCC scenarios, and take advantage of the GEOS-Chem capability for dynamic coupling of mercury between atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial reservoirs. We will use the results to assess confidence and uncertainties in projections of future U.S. air quality and mercury deposition, particularly with regard to the effect of climate change. We will conduct a series of sensitivity simulations to investigate the effects of global climate and emission changes on intercontinental transport of pollution to the U.S.
Expected Results:
Our work will expand understanding of the effects of global change on regional air quality and mercury deposition in the U.S. It will provide important information on the co-benefits of greenhouse gas regulations for public health. Our use of multiple climate and emissions scenarios will help bracket the range of air quality responses expected in the coming decades. This will enable improved long-term planning of air quality management, and help determine to what extent international cooperation may be necessary to achieve domestic air quality and mercury goals. Our work will guide policymakers as they develop improved strategies for protecting public health in a changing world.
Publications and Presentations:
Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 52 publications for this projectJournal Articles:
Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 24 journal articles for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
chemical transport, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides, sulfates, organics, pollution prevention, environmental chemistry, modeling, climate models, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol, mercury deposition, intercontinental transport,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecology and Ecosystems, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, mercury deposition, Baysian analysis, climate models, atmospheric modelsProgress and Final Reports:
The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.