Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: QnD – Designing a Participatory Scenario Modeling Tool to Integrate Technology, Ecology, and Sociology in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve and Beyond
EPA Grant Number: SU833173Title: QnD – Designing a Participatory Scenario Modeling Tool to Integrate Technology, Ecology, and Sociology in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve and Beyond
Investigators: Kiker, Gregory , Southworth, Jane , Barnes, Grenville , Radachowsky, Jeremy , Dain, Jonathan , Biedenweg, Kelly , Branch, Lyn , Monroe, Martha
Institution: University of Florida
EPA Project Officer: Page, Angela
Phase: I
Project Period: September 30, 2006 through May 30, 2007
Project Amount: $10,000
RFA: P3 Awards: A National Student Design Competition for Sustainability Focusing on People, Prosperity and the Planet (2006) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: P3 Challenge Area - Sustainable and Healthy Communities , Pollution Prevention/Sustainable Development , P3 Awards , Sustainable and Healthy Communities
Objective:
Participatory scenario modeling – an interactive method for visualizing the future – is one of the most promising tools for achieving sustainable land use agreements amongst diverse stakeholder groups. The method has the potential to bridge the gap between the highly technical knowledge of scientists and the varied knowledge and values of non-scientists in order to create policies that respect livelihoods and maintain ecological integrity. However, most recent scenario model development has focused on the technical aspects of model building, often deemphasizing collaboration and participation.
We propose to develop and test a platform that fuses technology with lessons from many disparate disciplines in order to promote collaborative thinking, the creation of emergent ideas, and increased ownership and support for natural resource policies. In Phase I of this project, we built upon an innovative Java-based framework, the Questions and Decisions (QnD) model system, to design a beginning-to-end scenario modeling process that will be tested in one ideal study system: the Maya Biosphere Reserve of Guatemala. Now, in Phase II, we will implement the process in Guatemala and evaluate its efficacy by testing whether the process: 1) increases the number of viable policy options; 2) creates a convergence of preferences between stakeholder groups; and 3) increases public support for selected policies.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Objective 1: Research and Synthesis
We conducted a comprehensive literature review to synthesize the history of participatory scenario modeling, as well as to compile a list of other tools and methods that may be useful for participatory scenario modeling. We also researched the history of conservation activities and land use planning in the Maya Biosphere Reserve through a literature review and local interviews. Our review has led to three manuscripts in preparation for publication.
Objective 2: Model Development and Analysis
As an initial phase of development, a “version zero” QnD model was created for early stakeholder discussions and design-based brainstorming. The primary driving forces within QnD:Maya are land use changes that arise from the conversion of mature forest into various agricultural, urban and transitional landscapes. The essential spatial units are management units as delineated by governmental zoning. Within each of these spatial units, various “habitats” (mature forest, secondary growth, fallow lands, agricultural and urban) exist in dynamic states altered by the inhabitants that dwell within and near them. Since QnD is designed to be an interactive game, three preliminary management options were available to players to implement within any of the twenty-nine spatial units: (1) Adding additional roads, (2) Encouraging greater tourism-based employment and (3) Involving local communities in management decisions. Several example scenarios were created to represent various future social, economic and ecological drivers of the ecosystem. The result is an adaptable, spatially explicit game-model that can be rapidly changed to fit stakeholder objectives. Recently, the QnD system was also modified for multiple, automatic simulations using Monte-Carlo style methods or through SIMLAB-derived inputs. The combination of stakeholder-derived functions, adaptive gaming scenarios and systematic sensitivity/uncertainty analysis provide powerful tools for studying model complexity as well as stakeholder reactions to various levels of scenario uncertainty.
Objective 3: Interdisciplinary Implementation Design for Phase II
We developed a detailed beginning-to-end methodology for implementation of the participatory scenario modeling in Guatemala. The methods incorporate a complementary set of tools uncovered during the literature review, through conversations with academics and professionals, and through discussions with stakeholders in Guatemala. Tools range from anthropological survey methods and cognitive mapping to graph theory and global sensitivity analysis.
Extra Products: Partnerships for Phase II Implementation in the Mirador Basin
At the same time we made our first Phase I exploratory visit to Guatemala, a new initiative was being designed to begin multi-sector land use negotiations in the Mirador Basin, at the heart of the reserve. Our team gained support from all sectors to provide technical assistance to this important process through the implementation of our scenario modeling process. Quantitative results and milestones are included below:
- Participation in meetings. Members of our team participated in the inauguration of the Round Table in Guatemala City – a high-profile event including governmental ministers, secretaries, and the President of the Republic. We attended and assisted three of four round table meetings, three meetings to discuss community organization in potentially impacted communities, five in-person meetings with the executive committee of the round table, two meetings with local managers and the U.S. Department of Interior to discuss the redrafting of the park’s Master Plan, one organizational meeting with the NGO Balam, and numerous individual meetings, interviews, and informal conversations regarding the planning process.
- Incorporation of the Round Table Executive Committee in Phase II Design. Our team has maintained constant communication with the Round Table’s executive committee through biweekly e-mails and phone calls since January 2007. This has allowed us to ensure that our Phase II design is perfectly adapted to fit stakeholders’ needs and has the full support of our Guatemalan partners.
- Formalization of P3 Team’s Role in Process. According to the newly established statutes of the Round Table, we submitted a letter to the Secretary for Coordination of the Presidency soliciting a formal collaboration between our team members at the University of Florida and the Round Table. We gave a fifteen minute presentation to 45 round table members describing our proposed roles, and they accepted our inclusion as part of the facilitation team by consensus.
- Support of all Major Stakeholder Groups for Continued Phase II Assistance. We have the express support of all major stakeholder groups involved in the Mirador Basin negotiations to continue collaboration and provide technical assistance through Phase II of this project. Please see our description of partners and attached letters of support from the Guatemalan national park service (CONAP), the community forest association (ACOFOP), the non-governmental organization Association Balam, and Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS).
- Internship with Consensus Building Institute. One Ph.D. student has formalized an internship with Consensus Building Institute (CBI) as an opportunity for professional collaboration regarding capacity building, work plan development, and strategic planning for the Round Table. A letter of agreement from CBI is attached.
- Funding Leveraged. The facilitation of the Round Table is also supported by Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund ($20k), Overbrook Foundation ($10k), and Flora Family Foundation ($43,340), for a total of $73,340 counterpart funding. These funds are managed by Association Balam and cover costs complementary to the technical assistance solicited in Phase II of this proposal.
Educational Value
- Interdisciplinary meetings to discuss methods. Three seven-member interdisciplinary meetings were held at the University of Florida in order to discuss the methods for implementation and evaluation of the participatory scenario modeling process in Guatemala. Two specialist meetings were also held in order to discuss: 1. social science methods, and 2. model development and validation.
- Presentations. Two presentations were given in seminars hosted by UF’s Tropical Conservation and Development Program and the department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation. The respective talks were entitled, “Maya, Mormons, and Mel Gibson” and “Participatory Scenario Modeling for Conservation Planning in the Maya Biosphere Reserve”.
- Incorporation in Coursework. Both Ph.D. students involved in Phase I organized and led a two-week graduate-level field course called “Forest Policy in Guatemala and Mexico” in which students and faculty interviewed managers, politicians, and members of community concessions about regional and national natural resource policies. The students later presented the lessons learned to a Conservation and Development Forum at UF. The QnD model was also taught as a module in a course called “Biological Systems Modeling” in the department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering. One Ph.D. student returned to present the experience of gaining access to a complex consensus building effort in a course entitled “Facilitation Skills for Adaptive Management” in the department of Latin American Studies. Finally, both students involved in Phase I organized a “Maya Forest Working Group” as a discussion forum for students and faculty working in the region.
Conclusions:
Our P3 team has achieved and surpassed its Phase I objectives in order to ensure local acceptance of our Phase II implementation strategy. We have developed a highly interdisciplinary, well-designed and participatory plan for incorporating the scenario modeling process into the Mirador Basin conservation and development planning process. We have also constructed a broad and solid foundation of partnerships and allies. Everything is in place to convert our planning and design efforts into real on-the-ground progress for achieving sustainable policies that benefit people, prosperity, and the planet.
Proposed Phase II Objectives and Strategies:
Project Period for Phase II: September 30, 2007 – May 30, 2009
This Phase II project has two major objectives: 1) to develop and implement an innovative participatory scenario modeling process to promote sustainable land use decisions in the Mirador Basin of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala; and 2) to evaluate the success of the platform by rigorously testing a set of key hypotheses within a careful study design.
First, we will characterize and elucidate different understandings of the system through cognitive mapping. Second, we will negotiate and translate those cognitive maps from stakeholders’ minds into visual, interactive spatial models and facilitate interactive workshops for exploration of potential futures that stimulate healthy dialogue and social learning. Throughout this beginning-to-end scenario modeling process, we will maintain intimate participation of all stakeholder groups and employ careful facilitation techniques to foster active learning and regular reflection.
We will simultaneously monitor the efficacy of the process at promoting sustainable land use policies and test the following three hypotheses:
- Scenario modeling using a holistic participatory process promotes the creation of innovative policy alternatives
- Scenario modeling using a holistic participatory process creates a convergence of preferences between different stakeholder groups.
- Scenario modeling using a holistic participatory process increases satisfaction with the decision-making process
This research will develop a new and innovative breed of scenario modeling tools to promote collaborative thinking, the creation of emergent ideas, and increased satisfaction with land use decisions. The outcomes reach far beyond predicting the future; they create the conditions to reflexively change the future. Although we will test the platform in the Maya Biosphere Reserve of Guatemala, its flexibility allows implementation anywhere in the developed or developing world. Therefore, lessons learned through this project will be applicable to a wide range of conservation problems at multiple locations and scales. The rigorous testing of key hypotheses within a careful study design will ensure an objective evaluation of the platform’s success.
Supplemental Keywords:
decision making, community-based, modeling, Central America, conservation, pollution prevention, public policy, socio-economic, preferences, land use,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Sustainable Industry/Business, Sustainable Environment, Technology for Sustainable Environment, International, Social Science, sustainable development, Guatemala, biosphere, collaborative urban planning, environmental education, pollution prevention, land useThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.