Grantee Research Project Results
2000 Progress Report: Linking Environmental and Social Performance Measurement for Management at National and Watershed Levels: Modeling and Statistical Approaches
EPA Grant Number: R828021Title: Linking Environmental and Social Performance Measurement for Management at National and Watershed Levels: Modeling and Statistical Approaches
Investigators: Farrow, Scott , Small, Mitchell J. , Solow, Andrew R. , Bondelid, Tim
Current Investigators: Small, Mitchell J. , Solow, Andrew R. , Fischbeck, Paul S. , Farrow, Scott , Bondelid, Tim , Sinnott, James , Schultz, Martin , Van Houtven, George L. , Schoen, Mary E. , Cooter, W.S.
Institution: Carnegie Mellon University , Desert Research Institute , Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: January 10, 2000 through January 9, 2003
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 10, 2000 through January 9, 2001
Project Amount: $649,864
RFA: Water and Watersheds (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Watersheds , Water
Objective:
The project goal is to integrate physical, ecological and social science models and data to provide an evaluation tool for surface water quality managers at various levels of spatial aggregation. The objectives of the study are to: (1) estimate year-to-year changes in water quality for conventional water quality parameters at the national and watershed level by using index numbers, and multivariate and ordered mean rates of change for pollutants; (2) estimate the net benefits of alternative policies for Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) trading; (3) estimate the economic benefits of water quality improvement at the watershed level; (4) improve modeling of wet weather events in a policy model; and (5) estimate the link between water quality pollution abatement and control expenditures at the facility level and water quality performance indicators for the nation and specific regions and watersheds.Progress Summary:
We are using both modeling and statistical approaches following an initial meeting of the investigators in Spring 2000. As a point of departure, we use the National Water Pollution Control Assessment Model (NWPCAM) developed at the Research Triangle Institute. With that model, we are investigating sensitivity to various input parameters, the linkage between its output, and other indices of surface water quality. Statistically, we are applying econometric techniques to facility specific data.In the initial partial year of implementation, we have characterized the major sources of uncertainty in the model approach, begun investigation of the statistical links between model-based and state reports of water quality, and econometrically tested hypothesis about the cross-media pollution abatement control costs and the actions of polluting firms at the local level.
Our progress on project tasks includes:
- Basin/Watershed Level Analyses. We are assessing the validity of the NWPCAM model at local scales with investigations in the Monongahela River Basin, the Upper Potomac, the Upper Mississippi, and the Willamette Rivers. The testing included statistical comparisons between NWPCAM, site-specific models, site-specific data, and STORET data. The results indicate decent model performance for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and dissolved oxygen (DO), with poorer performance for total suspended solids (TSS).
- Model Based Indices and Statistical Measures of Change. We are currently working on response surface representations of the output from the NWPCAM model that might more easily assist local decision makers as well as assist in the basin level work described above. One form of index with preliminary results is an ordered probability model for estimating the probability that a given stream segment improves in water quality as a result of improvements in point or nonpoint source control. This is an important step in being able to analyze management approaches in water quality limited areas requiring TMDL control.
In addition to the Vaughn Water Quality Ladder criteria for Boatable-Fishable-Swimmable, a Water Quality Index (WQI) has been incorporated into NWPCAM. The WQI ranges from zero to 100 for each of the NWPCAM 1.1 conventional parameters (DO, TSS, Fecal Coliforms, and BOD5) as well as a composite, multiplicative form of the WQI that takes all four parameters into account.
- Evaluating Alternative Policy Designs in Water Quality Limited Areas. Work was completed on a project initiated earlier that studied the design of a water quality trading system in the Clear Creek watershed in Colorado. Control cost and water quality at specified monitors were studied under alternative trading ratios that might be used in the watershed (Schultz and Small, 2001). One result of the work is the difficulty in defining environmentally and economically sensitive designs that also are feasible to implement.
- Representing Uncertainties. This study investigates six watersheds of the Monongahela River Basin in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The study includes a comparison of NWPCAM model results to existing field data, a parameterization of the model inputs, and an analysis of uncertainty in model results. The research effort addresses the integration of physical, ecological, and social performance measurement at the watershed level by helping to understand the suitability of the physical model itself, its shortcomings, and potential improvements. This work eventually should lead to an enhanced evaluative and decision analytic framework for environmental regulatory decision support.
- Estimating the Impact of Environmental Investments on Performance. Facility level economic data were used to econometrically investigate the dollar impact of water pollution control costs on the total costs of the firm (Landry and Farrow, 2000). Initial results indicate differences across regulatory programs on the cost implication per dollar of control. This project was delayed by computer security control on the access of outside users to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mainframe computer and by negotiations between the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Bureau of the Census regarding a more limited use of the available data.
Future Activities:
We are starting investigation of the behavioral modeling of the state water quality reports and integrating cost data into the water quality model. With this integration, we hope to move toward evaluation of alternative policies for water quality management where TMDLs have been defined.Another goal of the project is to develop and apply statistical methods for evaluating the performance of the NWPCAM. Various approaches to statistical evaluation of environmental models are reviewed in Solow (2001). A key part of model evaluation concerns the assessment of correlations between water quality measurements. Briefly, a failure to account for positive correlations between measurements can lead to an incorrect rejection of the model. The bulk of the effort at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution so far on this project has been in formulating the evaluation of NWPCAM as a statistical problem and in developing methods for assessing correlations between measurements along a stream network.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 16 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
effluent, indicators, integrated assessment, public policy, cost-benefit, decision making, modeling, agriculture, industrial sectors., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Water, Water & Watershed, Wet Weather Flows, Environmental Monitoring, Ecology and Ecosystems, Ecological Risk Assessment, Watersheds, Social Science, social impact assessment, watershed, social performance measurement, statistical approaches, multiple monitoring sites, decision making, cost benefit, decision model, integrated watershed model, water quality, economic benefit, National level, statistics, aquatic ecosystems, wet weather modelingProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.