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Grantee Research Project Results

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Global Climate Change on Regional Air Quality

EPA Grant Number: U916236
Title: Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis on the Impact of Global Climate Change on Regional Air Quality
Investigators: Avise, Jeremy C.
Institution: Washington State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2006
Project Amount: $96,437
RFA: STAR Graduate Fellowships (2003) Recipients Lists
Research Category: Fellowship - Atmospheric Sciences , Academic Fellowships , Air Quality and Air Toxics

Objective:

The objective of this research project is to develop an understanding of the sensitivity of regional air quality predictions to uncertainties in pollutant emissions, meteorological input, and chemical boundary conditions.

Approach:

The sensitivity of model predictions to input parameters will be investigated through an ensemble strategy, where the ensemble members are developed through guided perturbations of model inputs. This research project is addressed within the framework of a collaborative effort to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional air quality. The groups involved in this effort include Washington State University, the University of Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the U.S. Forest Service. This work involves coupling the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ modeling system with output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model and the NCAR MOZART-2 global chemical transport model. We will investigate regional ozone and aerosol impact on air quality in the Pacific Northwest and northern Midwest regions through simulations 50 years in the future (2045-2055) in comparison to current simulations (1990-2000). Initial detailed sensitivity analyses will be conducted using ensemble simulations for a select period within the current simulations so that model sensitivity can be evaluated with respect to observed pollutant patterns. Ensemble members will be developed by varying meteorological inputs and from variations in land use, anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and fire/burn inputs in the CMAQ regional air quality model. Additional sensitivity studies will be conducted for future simulations in a similar manner.

This research project will result in new insight into how regional air quality simulations are affected by uncertainties in meteorological, emissions, and boundary condition inputs for both current and future climate conditions.

Supplemental Keywords:

fellowship, global climate change, regional air quality, pollutant emissions, regional ozone, aerosol impact, air pollution, modeling., RFA, Air, Scientific Discipline, Ecological Risk Assessment, Urban and Regional Planning, Atmosphere, Environmental Chemistry, Air Pollution Effects, climate change, air quality, atmospheric pollutant loads, ecosystem models, Global Climate Change, mobile source emissions, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, global warming, motor vehicle emissions, environmental monitoring, climate variability, community structure, green house gas concentrations, human activities, ozone concentrations, tropospheric ozone, emissions impact, ensemble sensitivity analysis, ambient air pollution, infrastructure systems, modeling, predicting ecological response, regional emissions model

Progress and Final Reports:

  • 2003
  • 2004
  • Final
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    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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