Grantee Research Project Results
1998 Progress Report: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Water Management Options in a Major Watersheds: Extending a Hydrodynamic-Water Quality Model to Include Biological and Politico-Economic Components
EPA Grant Number: R825285Title: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Water Management Options in a Major Watersheds: Extending a Hydrodynamic-Water Quality Model to Include Biological and Politico-Economic Components
Investigators: Sabatier, Paul A. , Quinn, James , Weinberg, Marca , Orlob, Gerald , Lund, Jay , Botsford, Louis , Johnston, Mike , Richerson, Peter , Moyle, Peter , Suchanek, Thomas
Current Investigators: Sabatier, Paul A. , Quinn, James , Weinberg, Marca , Bennett, Bill , Rhodes, Cathy , Loeb, Curtis , Slotton, Darell , Orlob, Gerald , Anderson, Jamie , Lund, Jay , Mount, Jeff , Botsford, Louis , Johnson, Mike , Richerson, Peter , Moyle, Peter , Suchanek, Thomas
Institution: University of California - Davis
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: December 1, 1996 through November 30, 1999 (Extended to September 30, 2000)
Project Period Covered by this Report: December 1, 1997 through November 30, 1998
Project Amount: $1,292,627
RFA: Water and Watersheds Research (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Watersheds , Water
Objective:
The objectives of this research project are to: (1) refine the RMA hydrodynamic-water quality finite element model of the Sacramento River and Delta system simulating flows, temperature, and salinity; (2) expand and integrate this model to include (a) estuarine and riparian habitat and indigenous ecosystems, (b) inflow and contaminants from tributary watersheds, (c) the economics of agricultural and urban water use, and (d) the effects of the above on water quality and selected fish populations; (3) use the integrated set of models to explore the impacts of a variety of management scenarios seeking to optimize politically important fish populations at risk with agricultural and urban water demands; and (4) understand the political context in which water decisions are being made and the role that scientific information plays in that process.Progress Summary:
This is a very large and complex project that, despite some delays, is generally on track. We shall be requesting a 1-year no-cost extension to complete the analyses and write the relevant reports. Portions of the project?particularly those dealing with mercury contamination and economic modeling?have been expanded with grants from other sources. Some of the major accomplishments to date include:- Hydrodynamic/Water Quality Modeling. Previously, the grid underlying the models was improved. In the past year, attention has focused on developing hydrodynamic models for 1992 (a "dry" year) and 1993 (an "above normal" year), as well as on developing temperature and salinity models for those years. All have been calibrated successfully, with the possible exception of salinity in the Delta (which faces the formidable problem of modeling a three-dimensional situation with a two-dimensional model). The major remaining task is to revise the hydrodynamic and water quality models for 1984 (a "wet" year). It has proved infeasible to implement our advisory committee's suggestion to add additional years (e.g., a "wet" year following a "dry" year, or a "dry" year following a "wet" year).
- Expand the Hydrodynamic Model To Include Biological and Economic Components.
The fisheries work has generally gone fairly well. The individual-based model
for striped bass (relating population dynamics to flows, temperature, salinity,
and toxins) has been completed. Plans are to test it against field data for
1992, 1993, and 1994, at least with respect to hydrodynamics and temperature.
The work on salmon also is proceeding rather well. Models have been developed to
simulate spawning and the effects of flows and temperature on egg dispersal and
yolk-sac larvae. These stages are relatively easy because the fish can be
represented as particles. Simulations of swimming behavior have yet to be
developed and tested against field data. Finally, Bennett and Moyle have
recently begun modeling the effects of temperature, flows, and salinity on
various life-stages of Delta smelt.
The work on habitat characteristics, sedimentation, and pollutants has met with mixed results thus far. Building on past work, we have developed a good understanding of the effects of sedimentation and mercury mining on various populations in Clear Lake, and coring analysis has produced some very interesting findings on the effects of a wide variety of land use changes on sedimentation rates. Efforts to use geochemical and geophysical methods to investigate how land uses have contributed to the sediment load to Clear Lake will be completed this summer, and these methods of relating soil loss to sediment yields should be available to calibrate models throughout the eastern Coast Range and elsewhere. Attempts to map a variety of relevant parameters into a geographic information system (GIS) format have ranged from very good (abandoned mines) to mixed (riparian vegetation, pesticide usage, soil characteristics). Probably the best work has been done on mercury?at Clear Lake, in Putah Creek downstream of Clear Lake and, in a more general fashion, throughout the Sacramento watershed. In addition, Suchanek and Slotton have received major supplemental funding to examine methyl mercury generation and transport in the Delta.
The economic modeling also is proceeding quite well. Supplemental funding has enabled Lund and Howitt to develop a model of California's statewide water system, including its surface water and groundwater sources, storage and conveyance facilities, and agricultural, environmental, and urban water uses. The model seeks to optimize economic returns from urban and agricultural water uses, subject to physical and policy constraints. This has enabled Weinberg to focus on the relationship between water diversions, crop mix, pesticide usage, and economic returns in a spatially explicit (GIS-based) model of the very important Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District.
- Model the Impacts of Various Management Scenarios. We have selected five
alternatives based on requirements of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act
(CVPIA) and the CALFED alternatives listed in the EIS:
Meeting the CVPIA requirement to reduce diversions by 800,000 af from: (a) upstream agricultural diversions, (b) Delta pumping to downstream agricultural diversions, (c) maintain the status quo, (d) delta channel enlargements, and (e) operation of an isolated facility (the "Peripheral Canal"). If things go well, we should be able to estimate the impact of each of these management scenarios on flows and certain water quality parameters (especially temperature and salinity in the river and Delta), fishery populations (especially striped bass, winter run salmon, and Delta smelt), and economic returns to urban and agricultural water users under a variety of assumptions.
- Improve Our Understanding of the Political Context of Water Policymaking with Respect to the Bay/Delta. Sabatier has: (a) conducted about 40 interviews with respect to the 1994 Bay/Delta Accord, and (b) surveyed about 600 Bay/Delta water policy elites in 1997. He expects to do another set of interviews this fall and analyze changes in elite beliefs between 1992 and 1997, in part to try to isolate the effects of the Accord.
Future Activities:
Most are outlined above. In addition to publications from specific components of the project, we intend to write several papers integrating various components, perhaps as a linked set of papers for Water Resources Research.Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 33 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
watersheds, risk assessment, mercury, aquatic, habitat, public policy, survey, EPA Region IX, CA, agriculture, remote sensing., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Water, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water & Watershed, Hydrology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Environmental Chemistry, State, Chemistry, Economics, Ecological Effects - Human Health, Ecological Risk Assessment, Watersheds, Mercury, EPA Region, risk assessment, aquatic, fate and transport, Region 9, social impact assessment, stream flows, integrated approach, hydrodynamic water quality model, remote sensing , fisheries, agricultural environment, watershed influences, statistical model, aquatic ecosystems, water quality, ecosystem restoration, water management options, public policy, California (CA)Relevant Websites:
Cathy Lawrence/striped bass:
http://www.itd.ucdavis.edu/
Jay
Lund/economic modeling:
http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN
Paul
Sabatier:
http://wpp.ucdavis.edu
Quinn:
http://endeavor.des.ucdavis.edu/geowbs
http://ice.ucdavis.edu
Moyle:
http://wfcb.ucdavis.edu/www/Petermoyle/default.htm
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.