Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Households, Consumption, and Energy Use: The Role of Demographic Change in Future U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
EPA Grant Number: R829801Title: Households, Consumption, and Energy Use: The Role of Demographic Change in Future U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Investigators: ONeill, Brian , Prskawetz, Alexia , Leiwen, Jiang , Pitkin, John , Dalton, Michael
Current Investigators: ONeill, Brian , Dalton, Michael , Prskawetz, Alexia , Pitkin, John , Leiwen, Jiang
Institution: Brown University
Current Institution: Brown University , California State University - Monterey Bay , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: September 1, 2002 through September 30, 2005 (Extended to September 30, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2003 through September 30, 2004
Project Amount: $279,015
RFA: Futures: Research in Socio-Economics (2001) RFA Text
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Objective:
The primary objective of this research project is to determine whether expected changes in the composition of the U.S. population by household type over the next 25-100 years will have a substantial influence on total energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. The specific objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop a set of long-term household projections that characterize plausible ranges of the future distribution of households by size, age, composition, and other demographic characteristics, including nativity; (2) quantify how consumption patterns vary across households of different types; and (3) introduce disaggregated household types into an existing energy-economic growth model of the United States to test the effect of accounting for demographic heterogeneity in energy and emissions projections, including the potential effects of alternative immigration scenarios.
Progress Summary:
We have built on work in Year 1 to make further progress toward our three specific objectives.
Objective 1: To Develop a Set of Long-Term Household Projections That Characterize Plausible Ranges of the Future Distribution of Households
In Year 1 of this project, we produced a preliminary set of long-term household projections for the United States to explore the scope for future changes in household size and age structure. In Year 2, we have further refined this set of projections. We first carried out a sensitivity analysis that showed that average household size is most sensitive to assumptions regarding union formation/dissolution and secondly fertility, and that age composition is affected most strongly by assumptions about fertility and life expectancy. We reexamined input assumptions for our preliminary scenarios and decided that they were too conservative. We agreed to a revised set of assumptions to use in updated household projections to be carried out in Year 3.
Objective 2: To Quantify How Consumption Patterns Vary Across Households of Different Types
In Year 1, we completed a preliminary analysis of household consumption and income data (i.e., the Consumer Expenditure Survey [CES] data), and in Year 2 we have refined it. Expenditure means now cover all expenditures calculated by integrating data from the Interview and Diary surveys (the two components of the CES). We analyzed results using an expanded set of 12 household types (three age categories and four size categories). Based on differences in expenditures, income, savings, and assets across these household types, we concluded that three age categories is definitely preferable to two, because it captures large differences between households headed by young (< 45) householders and those headed by middle-aged householders. Regarding size, we concluded that differences in economic behavior would justify differentiating size up to at least the size 4+ category in the young and middle-age groups, and up to at least the 3+ category in the old age group. In addition, we began work on differences in consumption and income between native-born and foreign-born households. Roughly speaking, there appeared to be differences in many cases of 10-25 percent between these two household types.
Objective 3: To Introduce Disaggregated Household Types Into an Existing Energy-Economic Growth Model of the United States
In Year 1, we modified the U.S. module of the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model to introduce households disaggregated by age. In Year 2, we carried out several scenario analyses using the preliminary household projections and updated CES data analysis results as input to understand the dynamic implications within the PET model of operating with households of different types. We concluded that further work on the theoretical basis was required and we may want to test alternative approaches in Year 3.
Future Activities:
During Year 3 of the project, we plan further work in each of our three specific objectives. Household projections will be finalized using our revised set of input assumptions and a manuscript prepared for submission to a demographic journal. The approach to incorporating age heterogeneity into the PET model will be considered further and tested, and a final set of scenarios will be produced to measure the effect of accounting for changes in household distributions, relative to projections that account for changes in population size alone. A manuscript will be prepared for submission. Analysis of the potential effect of alternative scenarios for immigration on our results will be carried out primarily in Year 3.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 14 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
population, consumption, emissions, climate change, households,, RFA, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Economics, decision-making, Social Science, Economics & Decision Making, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric carbon dioxide, demographic, environmental monitoring, carbon emissions, energy generation, human population growth, population environment technology model, socioeconomic indicators, socioeconomics, greenhouse gases, human dimension, population abundance, demographics, global warming , energy consumption, ecosystem sustainability, behavior change, climate variabilityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.