Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption BehaviorEPA Grant Number: R828731
Title: Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior
Investigators: Ellis, Joseph H. , Samet, J. , Schwab, M. , Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Patz, J. F. , Joutz, Frederick L.
Current Investigators: Ellis, Joseph H. , Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Joutz, Frederick L.
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University , George Washington University
Current Institution: The Johns Hopkins University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2003 (Extended to February 7, 2005)
Project Amount: $1,376,739
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Our objective is to develop a scientifically credible modeling facility that will help policy makers and analysts understand the effects of human activities on climate change and variability as well as the possible human responses and adaptations to climate change and variability.
This research approach involves four major modeling elements: climate change and variability, electrical energy demand and production, regional air pollution, and human health effects associated with air pollution exposure. Using the Maryland/Northern Virginia/DC/Delaware area as a case study, the air pollutants we will focus on in our analyses are tropospheric (ground level) ozone and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) because of their important health effects (including increased morbidity and premature death). The modeling system used for these pollutants will be Models-3, which is installed and functioning in-house. (MM5 is also installed and functioning in-house). Emissions inventory management and projections are accommodated within Models-3. Climate change and variability will be modeled using downscaled exogenously derived scenarios for a suite of time horizons. Average electric demand modeling for residential and commercial sectors will be accomplished using a suite of the latest generation Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)-developed tools (respectively, REEPS and COMMEND). Changes in demand distributions over time will be accomplished using a standard load shape and short-term load forecasting model (HELM-PC, another EPRI product). Widely used electric power sector simulation approaches will translate demand distributions into fuel use and emissions by electricity generators. Transportation-related climate effects will be modeled through altered VOC and NOx emissions as a result of decreases in vehicle miles traveled and changes in electricity demand caused by the declaration of ozone pollution alerts. Finally, human health effects modeling will be performed with PM and ozone concentration-response functions described in EPA's Section 812 study, in conjunction with other existing (locally-derived) epidemiologic models and newly developed methods relating urban air pollutant exposure and selected morbidity and mortality endpoints.
The principal result of our work will be a comprehensive yet computationally tractable tool for analyzing interrelationships between selected human activities (including transportation), energy production and consumption behavior, ambient air pollution and associated health effects.