Grantee Research Project Results
2015 Progress Report: Integrated Modeling Approaches to Support Systems-Based Ecological Risk Assessment
EPA Grant Number: R835795Title: Integrated Modeling Approaches to Support Systems-Based Ecological Risk Assessment
Investigators: von Stackelberg, Katherine Ellen , Sunderland, Elsie M. , Landis, Wayne G. , Stark, John D
Current Investigators: von Stackelberg, Katherine Ellen , Stark, John D , Landis, Wayne G. , Sunderland, Elsie M.
Institution: Harvard University , Washington State University , Western Washington University
Current Institution: President and Fellow of Harvard College , Washington State University , Western Washington University
EPA Project Officer: Aja, Hayley
Project Period: June 1, 2015 through May 31, 2017 (Extended to December 31, 2018)
Project Period Covered by this Report: May 1, 2015 through April 30,2016
Project Amount: $651,708
RFA: Systems-Based Research for Evaluating Ecological Impacts of Manufactured Chemicals (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Chemical Safety for Sustainability
Objective:
The objectives are to:
- Develop quantitative adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for at least one legacy contaminant (e.g., mercury, PCBs) and one emerging contaminant (e.g., PFCs) to develop exposure-response profiles for use in a larger Bayesian Network-Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM);
- Develop several ecological risk case studies demonstrating the integration and application of one or more underlying process models to synthesize and integrate available data across levels of biological organization, including exposure estimates, quantitative AOPs, non-chemical stressors, and population models; and
- Apply the BN-RRM framework to demonstrate how the approach generates quantitative predictions of potential ecological risk impacts at scales relevant to policy development and regulatory decision making.
Progress Summary:
Efforts during the past year have focused on developing two case studies. The first is site-specific, focusing on organophosphate exposures to salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, a data-rich context based on a vetted AOP from the literature. The second is more general, focused on perfluorinated compound exposures to fish and birds using a “what-if” framework to back-calculate allowable exposures given target population declines.
Organophosphate Exposures and Salmon in the Pacific Northwest
Relying on a published (but largely unquantified) adverse outcome pathway analysis for acetylcholinesterase inhibition leading to acute mortality, we have developed the broad outlines of a strawman relative risk network model focusing on organophosphate pesticide (OP) exposure to Pacific salmon in the Pacific Northwest that incorporates the potential impact of increasing temperature (e.g., climate change) as a modifying and synergistic factor relative to OP toxicity. The figure below provides an overview of the BN-RRM for this case study. The outcome of regulatory interest—population viability of salmon in the Pacific Northwest—is influenced by exposure to mixtures of pesticides as well as other factors related to habitat quality and temperature (nodes shown in blue). Many federal, state, local, and tribal agencies have generously provided the data that we need to populate this case study. Some (like NOAA and the Washington Department of Agriculture) have specifically—and personally—sent us data that we have requested. Others have provided data through public access databases, such as the Washington Department of Ecology’s EIM system (http://www.ecy.wa.gov/eim/) and USGS NWIS (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt).
A growing list of contributors includes:
- NOAA
- USGS
- WA Department of Agriculture
- WA Department of Ecology
- City of Bellingham
- Nooksack Salmon Enhancement Association (nonprofit)
- King County DNR
- King Conservation District
- Skagit Conservation district
- Yakima Tribal DNR
- Samish Tribal DNR
Perfluorinated Compounds
We have developed a literature review of ecological effects of perfluorinated compounds, focusing on immunotoxicity as the basis for an AOP that ultimately leads to reduced fitness and sustainability of the population resulting from a decreased ability to fight stressors such as infections. The figure below provides an overview of the linkages between molecular initiating events (MIE) to key events to phenotypic outcomes at the individual and ultimately population levels. The Bayesian framework will allow an evaluation of exposures leading to specific population declines to inform development of regulatory strategies.
Future Activities:
In the coming year, we will focus on finalizing analyses and preparing manuscripts for publication. Results will be posted at our institutional websites as they become available.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 13 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
Uncertainty, systematic review, influence diagrams, Bayesian network, model, probabilistic, decision analysis, integrated assessment models, ecological risk assessment;Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.