2012 Progress Report: Combining Empirical Orthogonal Function and Extreme Value Theory Methods to Characterize Observed and Future Changes in Extreme U.S. Air Pollution Events

EPA Grant Number: R835206
Title: Combining Empirical Orthogonal Function and Extreme Value Theory Methods to Characterize Observed and Future Changes in Extreme U.S. Air Pollution Events
Investigators: Fiore, Arlene M , Polvani, Lorenzo M
Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: June 1, 2012 through May 31, 2015 (Extended to May 31, 2016)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2012 through May 31,2013
Project Amount: $749,951
RFA: Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate (2011) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Water Quality , Climate Change , Air , Water

Objective:

With a suite of observations and models, we will identify and characterize changes in extreme ozone and particulate matter events and their underlying meteorological drivers leading to extreme air pollution events over the past several decades as well as for a variety of future climate and emission scenarios. We will also examine changes in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events and extended periods of extreme drought, to provide information on two of the key hazards affecting water quality.

Progress Summary:

We have characterized changes in extreme surface ozone events over the Eastern United States and attributed improvements to the success of NOx emission controls in recent decades. We have begun examining how these events might change in the future, including their connections with shifts in large-scale circulation patterns such as the position of the jet stream and the frequency of ventilating storms during summer over the 21st century. Finally, we documented a proof-of-concept study indicating that synthetic tracers implemented in physical climate models, which should allow for exploration of more scenarios than possible with full chemistry-climate models, can provide information on the response of summertime particulate matter pollution episodes to climate change.

Future Activities:

We are developing a bias correction technique to attain more accurate projections of changes in the frequency of extreme pollution episodes. With a suite of simulations with a chemistry-climate model, we are quantifying changes in extreme weather and pollution events over the course of the 21st century under several climate and pollutant emission scenarios to determine the specific role of changes in climate versus changes in regional versus global precursors. We are also exploring the role of aerosols in contributing to changes in extreme weather events.


Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 48 publications 11 publications in selected types All 11 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Barnes EA, Fiore AM. Surface ozone variability and the jet position:implications for projecting future air quality. Geophysical Research Letters 2013;40(11):2839-2844. R835206 (2012)
R835206 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Other: Wiley Online-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Fang Y, Fiore AM, Lamarque J-F, Horowitz LW, Lin M. Using synthetic tracers as a proxy for summertime PM2.5 air quality over the Northeastern United States in physical climate models. Geophysical Research Letters 2013;40(4):755-760. R835206 (2012)
    R835206 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Other: Wiley Online-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Rieder HE, Fiore AM, Polvani LM, Lamarque J-F, Fang Y. Changes in the frequency and return level of high ozone pollution events over the eastern United States following emission controls. Environmental Research Letters 2013;8(1):014012 (10 pp.). R835206 (2012)
    R835206 (Final)
  • Full-text: IOP Science-Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: IOP Science-Abstract
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  • Other: IOP Science-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Turner AJ, Fiore AM, Horowitz LW, Bauer M. Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100:variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2013;13(2):565-578. R835206 (2012)
    R835206 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Other: Columbia University-Abstract & Full Text PDF
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Ambient air, global climate, precipitation, sustainable air quality management, sustainable water management, global change, regional climate change, air pollution episodes, ozone, aerosol, modeling, general circulation models, climate models

    Relevant Websites:

    http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52998 Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
    2013 Progress Report
    2014 Progress Report
    Final Report