2012 Progress Report: Early Career: The hazards of Extreme Climatic Events: Predicting Impacts

EPA Grant Number: R835188
Title: Early Career: The hazards of Extreme Climatic Events: Predicting Impacts
Investigators: Rohr, Jason R.
Institution: University of South Florida
EPA Project Officer: Hiscock, Michael
Project Period: June 1, 2012 through May 31, 2016
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2012 through May 31,2013
Project Amount: $374,936
RFA: Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate (2011) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Water and Watersheds , Climate Change , Air , Water

Objective:

Although climatic extremes have been linked regularly  to changes in water quality and disease outbreaks, few generalities have materialized for how temperature variability/extremes affect water quality. I hypothesize that the faster metabolism and smaller size of parasites than hosts allows them to acclimate more quickly to unpredictable temperature shifts and extremes, providing parasites with an advantage in a more climatically variable environment. The goal of this grant is to more thoroughly test this hypothesis and to develop tools to predict how climatic variability and extremes, which are increasing with global climate change, will affect water quality by altering water-borne disease risk for wildlife and humans. The specific objectives are to:

A.  Characterize climatic extremes and probabilities of extreme events occurring together.

B.   Determine the generality of the hypothesis that extreme events will increase water-borne pathogens by testing for associations between these factors across spatial and temporal scales and host and pathogen types, including zoonotic pathogens that infect humans.

C.   Quantify how extreme climatic events that occur together or with other stressors, such as pollution, affect disease risk.

D.  Develop predictive models to identify locations and times where water quality and disease risk are impacted so that mitigating measures can be appropriately targeted and sustainable systems can be developed.

By identifying how, when, and where climate change will compromise water quality by increasing wildlife and human exposure to pathogens, this grant is directly relevant to Goal 4 of the U.S. EPA’s Strategic Plan and to the U.S. EPA’s responsibility to uphold the Safe Drinking Water and Clean Water Acts.

Progress Summary:

We have made great progress on all four objectives.  In unpublished work, we have characterized extreme temperature and moisture events (Objective A).  We also have shown that temperature shifts benefited a bacterium, nematode, and fungal parasite of amphibians, and that the fungal pathogen benefited from temperature shifts in two amphibian host species and across two amphibian age classes (juveniles and adults). These results demonstrate that our hypothesis is general across parasite taxa and host species, addressing Objective B.  We also have studied how temperature shifts affect chytridiomycosis (a fungal disease of amphibians that is causing worldwide declines) across moisture levels. Interestingly, the temperature shifts only affected disease risk when the soil was considerably moist, which are the conditions that favor fungal growth.  This experiment addresses Objective C above, quantifying how extreme climatic events that occur together affect disease risk. Finally, we have developed a series of predictive models to capture how climatic conditions will affect water quality and disease risk, thus beginning to tackle Objective D. We developed a global predictive model for the amphibian chytrid fungus that includes climatic conditions, habitat variables, and international trade. We also generated a heuristic model that evaluates how the magnitude and frequency of temperature shifts will affect host parasite interactions.  We just completed a dynamical SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model to evaluate how host and parasite populations will respond to various scales of temperature variability. These and other manuscripts published with the support of EPA funding are described below.


Journal Articles on this Report : 23 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 56 publications 56 publications in selected types All 56 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Jennings DE, Edwards GB, Rohr JR. Associations among ground-surface spiders (Araneae) and other arthropods in mesic flatwoods. Florida Entomologist 2012;95(2):290-296. R835188 (2012)
R835188 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Florida Entomologist-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Jennings DE, Congelosi AM, Rohr JR. Insecticides reduce survival and the expression of traits associated with carnivory of carnivorous plants. Ecotoxicology 2012;21(2):569-575. R835188 (2012)
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Johnson PTJ, Rohr JR, Hoverman JT, Kellermanns E, Bowerman J, Lunde KB. Living fast and dying of infection:host life history drives interspecific variation in infection and disease risk. Ecology Letters 2012;15(3):235-242. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Koprivnikar J, Marcogliese DJ, Rohr JR, Orlofske SA, Raffel TR, Johnson PTJ. Macroparasite infections of amphibians: what can they tell us? Ecohealth 2012;9(3):342-360. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Li Y, Cohen JM, Rohr JR. Review and synthesis of the effects of climate change on amphibians. Integrative Zoology 2013;8(2):145-161. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Liu X, Rohr JR, Li Y. Climate, vegetation, introduced hosts and trade shape a global wildlife pandemic. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 2013;280(1753):20122506. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article McMahon TA, Halstead NT, Johnson S, Raffel TR, Romansic JM, Crumrine PW, Rohr JR. Fungicide-induced declines of freshwater biodiversity modify ecosystem functions and services. Ecology Letters 2012;15(7):714-722. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article McMahon TA, Brannelly LA, Chatfield MWH, Johnson PTJ, Joseph MB, McKenzie VJ, Richards-Zawacki CL, Venesky MD, Rohr JR. Chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has nonamphibian hosts and releases chemicals that cause pathology in the absence of infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2013;110(1):210-215. R835188 (2012)
    R835188 (2013)
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  • Abstract: PNAS-Abstract
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  • Journal Article McMahon TA, Romansic JM, Rohr JR. Nonmonotonic and monotonic effects of pesticides on the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in culture and on tadpoles. Environmental Science & Technology 2013;47(14):7958-7964. R835188 (2012)
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  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Raffel TR, Romansic JM, Halstead NT, McMahon TA, Venesky MD, Rohr JR. Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate. Nature Climate Change 2013;3(2):146-151. R835188 (2012)
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  • Full-text: ResearchGate-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Nature Climate Change-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Rohr JR, Martin LB. Reduce, reuse, recycle scientific reviews. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2012;27(4):192-193. R835188 (2012)
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  • Abstract: Cell Press-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Rohr JR, Martin LB. Type I error is unlikely to hinder review recycling: a reply to Montesinos. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2012;27(6):312-313. R835188 (2012)
    R835188 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Cell Press-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Rohr JR, Halstead NT, Raffel TR. The herbicide atrazine, algae, and snail populations. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 2012;31(5):973-976. R835188 (2012)
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Rohr JR, Palmer BD. Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms. Conservation Biology 2013;27(4):741-751. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Rohr JR, Johnson P, Hickey CW, Helm RC, Fritz A, Brasfield S. Implications of global climate change for natural resource damage assessment, restoration, and rehabilitation. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 2013;32(1):93-101. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Sears BF, Schlunk AD, Rohr JR. Do parasitic trematode cercariae demonstrate a preference for susceptible host species? PLoS ONE 2012;7(12):e51012. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Sears BF, Rohr JR. Loss of trematode parthenitae in Planorbella trivolvis (Mollusca: Gastropoda). Journal of Parasitology 2013;99(4):738-739. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Sears BF, Snyder PW, Rohr JR. Infection deflection: hosts control parasite location with behaviour to improve tolerance. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2013;280(1762):20130759 (5 pp.). R835188 (2012)
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  • Abstract: The Royal Society Publishing-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Sears B, Snyder P, Rohr J. No effects of two anesthetic agents on circulating leukocyte counts or resistance to trematode infections in larval amphibians. Journal of Herpetology 2013;47(3):498-501. R835188 (2012)
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  • Abstract: BioOne-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Staley ZR, Senkbeil JK, Rohr JR, Harwood VJ. Lack of direct effects of agrochemicals on zoonotic pathogens and fecal indicator bacteria. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 2012;78(22):8146-8150. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Venesky MD, Mendelson III JR, Sears BF, Stiling P, Rohr JR. Selecting for tolerance against pathogens and herbivores to enhance success of reintroduction and translocation. Conservation Biology 2012;26(4):586-592. R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Venesky MD, Hanlon SM, Lynch K, Parris MJ, Rohr JR. Optimal digestion theory does not predict the effect of pathogens on intestinal plasticity. Biology Letters 2013;9(2):20130038 (4 pp.). R835188 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Venesky MD, Raffel TR, McMahon TA, Rohr JR. Confronting inconsistencies in the amphibian-chytridiomycosis system:implications for disease management. Biological Reviews 2014;89(2):477-483. R835188 (2012)
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  • Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
    2013 Progress Report
    2014 Progress Report
    Final Report