2014 Progress Report: Constraining Urban-To-Global Scale Estimates of Black Carbon Distributions, Sources, Regional Climate Impacts, and Co-Benefit Metrics with Advanced Coupled Dynamic - Chemical Transport - Adjoint Models

EPA Grant Number: R835037
Title: Constraining Urban-To-Global Scale Estimates of Black Carbon Distributions, Sources, Regional Climate Impacts, and Co-Benefit Metrics with Advanced Coupled Dynamic - Chemical Transport - Adjoint Models
Investigators: Carmichael, Gregory R. , Grell, Georg , Henze, Daven K , Spak, Scott
Institution: University of Iowa , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , University of Colorado at Boulder
EPA Project Officer: Wilson, Wil
Project Period: September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2014 (Extended to August 31, 2015)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2013 through August 31,2014
Project Amount: $895,432
RFA: Black Carbon's Role In Global To Local Scale Climate And Air Quality (2010) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

In this project we will evaluate and rank sources of uncertainty in modeling BC concentrations and their radiative impacts. The uncertainties analyzed will include those associated with model parameters as well as model structure. We will use this information to improve model representation of BC distributions. We will reduce the uncertainties in BC distributions and radiative impacts through the close integration of observations and models. We will evaluate the uncertainties using novel metrics developed in this project, that will reflect competing effects of co-pollutants and that account for air quality and climate impacts. 

Progress Summary:

Major activities of this research has been to further develop adjoint sensitivity and data assimilation tools and to use them in novel applications directed at reducing the uncertainties in ambient BC distributions and their associated environmental impacts, and in better informing decision makers. To illustrate the later point we have conducted full-year global adjoint calculations in GEOS-Chem for speciated aerosol emissions sensitivities, direct radiative forcing (globally and in four latitude bands), and population-weighted concentrations. Simulations have employed present-day and RCP 2050 emissions scenarios to support development of emissions elasticity curves. From these, we have calculated radiative forcing metrics, including Forcing Amplifier and Emissions Reduction Efficiency by sector and region, for all megacities. A key result has been identifying locations and sectors where global, regional, and Arctic radiative forcing and warming are orders of magnitude more sensitive to emissions reductions than global population-weighted PM2.5 (Figure A). We have thereby, for the first time, identified regions and activities where air quality improvements can be considered a co-benefit to mitigating SLCF by aerosols. 

 

To more comprehensively calculate climate impacts, we added latitudinal parameterizations of speciated aerosol indirect radiative forcing and radiative effects of black carbon on snow. We further calculated air pollution impacts on premature mortalities using five concentration-response functions. We also analyzed megacity sectoral contributions in economic context, considering sectoral contributions to GDP estimates from Brookings Institute Global MetroMonitor and PWC Global City GDP rankings. Key findings include a global assessment of emissions reduction efficiency for BC and SO2 (Figure B). We plan a regional application in Asia building on emissions sensitivity results from Zhang et al. (2014), which will identify the impacts of emissions uncertainties on policy-relevant metrics findings and assess the roles of megacities at higher spatial and temporal resolution. 
 
 
Work has also advanced on building and applying the WRF-Chem adjoint. The duel role of BC in air quality and weather/climate motivated the developing of sensitivity analysis for the coupled WRF-Chem model. Our goal for this aspect of the project is to provide capability for sensitivity studies and 4D variational data assimilation (4DVar) for WRF-Chem. We have developed tangent linear (TL) and adjoint (AD) components for critical subgrid-scale mechanisms, including emissions, dry deposition, BC aging, PBL mixing, two land surface models (LSM), and two surface layer models. AD and TL versions of cumulus convection are can be included once a chemical tracer is added to the forward model. The AD enables a user to track the sensitivity of a receptor backwards in time to emission sources. The TL model additionally enables incremental 4D-Var data assimilation by calculating the affect of perturbing emissions on modeled observation values. 
 
We have also advanced the capabilities to assimilate PM and AOD into the a comprehensive version of WRF-Chem by building the adjoint of various WRF-Chem modules that handle aerosol feedbacks to meteorology, including the aerosol mixing-activation and a microphysics parameterization that deal with indirect effects, and the radiation and optical properties routines used in the direct and semi-direct interactions. These components have been added to the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) tool, which is being used in assimilation studies designed to produce optimized fields of PM2.5 and BC for use in subsequent studies. These tools have been used in a series of studies related to improving the analysis state of PM via assimilation of mutliwavelength AOD from polar orbiting (Saide et al., 2013 ) and geostationary (Saide et al., 2014b) satellites, in improving biomass burning emission estimates (Saide et al., 2014c) and in investigating the impact of smoke on severe storms (Saide et al., 2014a). 

Future Activities:

Comprehensive regional-scale sensitivity and assimilation studies. 
 
WRF-Chem adjoint development. 
 
Source sector/region contributions to BC concentrations and radiative forcing. 
 
Quantifying emissions and process uncertainties in adjoint radiative forcing metrics. 
 
Submission of new papers. 

 

References:

Zhang, L., Henze, D. K., Grell, G. A., Carmichael, G. R., Bousserez, N., Zhang, Q., and Cao, J.: Constraining black carbon aerosol over Southeast Asia using OMI aerosol absorption optical depth and the adjoint of GEOS-Chem, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 14, 28385-28452, doi:10.5194/acpd-14-28385-2014, 2014. 

Saide, P.E., G. R. Carmichael, Z. Liu, C. S. Schwartz, H. C. Lin, A. M. da Silva, E. Hyer (2013). Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a size-resolved sectional model: impacts of observationally constrained, multi-wavelength and fine mode retrievals on regional scale forecasts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10425-10444, 2013. 

Saide, P. E., Kim, J., Song, C. H., Choi, M., Cheng, Y., and Carmichael, G. R.: Assimilating next generation geostationary aerosol optical depth retrievals can improve air quality simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2014GL062089, 10.1002/2014gl062089, 2014b. 
 
Saide, P.E., Peterson, D., da Silva, A., Anderson, B., Ziemba L.D., Diskin, G., Sachse, G., Hair, J., Butler, C., Fenn, M., Jimenez, J.L., Campuzano-Jost, O., Perring, A., Schwarz, J., Markovic, M.Z., Russell, P., Redemann, J., Shinozuka, Y., Streets, D.G., Yan, F., Dibb, J., Yokelson, R., Toon, O.B., Hyer, E, Carmichael, G.R., Revealing important nocturnal and day-to-day variations in fire smoke emissions through a novel multiplatform inversion. Submitted, 2014c. 
 
Saide, P. E., Spak, S. N., Pierce, R. B., Otkin, J. A., Schaack, T. K., Heidinger, A. K., da Silva, A. M., Kacenelenbogen, M., Redemann, J., and Carmichael, G. R.: Central American biomass burning smoke can increase tornado severity in the US, Submitted, 2014a. 


Journal Articles on this Report : 14 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 64 publications 21 publications in selected types All 21 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Guerrette JJ, Henze DK. Development and application of the WRFPLUS-Chem online chemistry adjoint WRFDA-Chem assimilation system. Geoscientific Model Development 2015;8(6):1857-1876. R835037 (2014)
R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: European Geosciences Union-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: European Geosciences Union-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Huang M Carmichael GR, Kulkarni S, Streets DG, Lu Z, Zhang Q, Pierce RB, Kondo Y, Jimenez JL, Cubison MJ, Anderson B, Wisthaler A. Sectoral and geographical contributions to summertime continental United States (CONUS) black carbon spatial distributions. Atmospheric Environment 2012;51:165-174. R835037 (2012)
    R835037 (2013)
    R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
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  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Kulkarni S, Sobhani N, Miller-Schulze JP, Shafer MM, Schauer JJ, Solomon PA, Saide PE, Spak SN, Cheng YF, Denier van der Gon HAC, Lu Z, Streets DG, Janssens-Maenhout G, Wiedinmyer C, Lantz J, Artamonova M, Chen B, Imashev S, Sverdlik L, Deminter JT, Adhikary B, D'Allura A, Wei C, Carmichael GR. Source sector and region contributions to BC and PM2.5 in Central Asia. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2015;15(4):1683-1705. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Mao YH, Li QB, Henze DK, Jiang Z, Jones DBA, Kopacz M, He C, Qi L, Gao M, Hao W-M, Liou K-N. Estimates of black carbon emissions in the western United States using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2015;15(13):7685-7702. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Marrapu P, Cheng Y, Beig G, Sahu S, Srinivas R, Carmichael GR. Air quality in Delhi during the Commonwealth Games. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(19):10619-10630. R835037 (2013)
    R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text-PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Other: ResearchGate-Abstract & Full Text-PDF
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  • Journal Article Mena-Carrasco M, Saide P, Delgado R, Hernandez P, Spak S, Molina L, Carmichael G, Jiang X. Regional climate feedbacks in Central Chile and their effect on air quality episodes and meteorology. Urban Climate 2014;10(5):771-781. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract & Full Text HTML
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  • Other: La Tercera-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Nordmann S, Cheng YF, Carmichael GR, Yu M, Denier van der Gon HAC, Zhang Q, Saide PE, Poschl U, Su H, Birmili W, Wiedensohler A. Atmospheric black carbon and warming effects influenced by the source and absorption enhancement in central Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(23):12683-12699. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Saide PE, Carmichael GR, Liu Z, Schwartz CS, Lin HC, da Silva AM, Hyer E. Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a size-resolved sectional model: impacts of observationally constrained, multi-wavelength and fine mode retrievals on regional scale analyses and forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2013;13(20):10425-10444. R835037 (2013)
    R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Other: Harvard University-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Saide PE, Kim J, Song CH, Choi M, Cheng Y, Carmichael GR. Assimilation of next generation geostationary aerosol optical depth retrievals to improve air quality simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 2014;41(24):9188-9196. R835037 (2014)
  • Full-text: Wiley Online-Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Other: Wiley Online-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Saide PE, Spak SN, Pierce RB, Otkin JA, Schaack TK, Heidinger AK, da Silva AM, Kacenelenbogen M, Redemann J, Carmichael GR. Central American biomass burning smoke can increase tornado severity in the U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 2015;42(3):956-965. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ResearchGate-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: AGU-Abstract
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  • Other: AGU-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Shen Z, Liu J, Horowitz LW, Henze DK, Fan S, Levy II H, Mauzerall DL, Lin J-T, Tao S. Analysis of transpacific transport of black carbon during HIPPO-3: implications for black carbon aging. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(12):6315-6327. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Tsao C-C, Campbell JE, Mena-Carrasco M, Spak SN, Carmichael GR, Chen Y. Biofuels that cause land-use change may have much larger non-GHG air quality emissions than fossil fuels. Environmental Science & Technology 2012;46(19):10835-10841. R835037 (2013)
    R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
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  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Zhang L, Kok JF, Henze DK, Li Q, Zhao C. Improving simulations of fine dust surface concentrations over the western United States by optimizing the particle size distribution. Geophysical Research Letters 2013;40(12):3270-3275. R835037 (2013)
    R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley Online-Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Other: Wiley Online-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Zhang L, Henze DK, Grell GA, Carmichael GR, Bousserez N, Zhang Q, Torres O, Ahn C, Lu Z, Cao J, Mao Y. Constraining black carbon aerosol over Asia using OMI aerosol absorption optical depth and the adjoint of GEOS-Chem. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2015;15(18):10281-10308. R835037 (2014)
    R835037 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
    2012 Progress Report
    2013 Progress Report
    Final Report