Final Report: Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates

EPA Grant Number: R835034
Title: Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Amar, Praveen , Liang, Xin-Zhong , Streets, David G.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Argonne National Laboratory , NESCAUM
EPA Project Officer: Katz, Taylor
Project Period: August 1, 2011 through July 31, 2014 (Extended to July 31, 2016)
Project Amount: $899,773
RFA: Black Carbon's Role In Global To Local Scale Climate And Air Quality (2010) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

The objectives of this project are to: (1) develop size-resolved, speciated emission inventories of aerosols and aerosol precursors; (2) use an ensemble of parameterizations in regional-scale models to identify best estimates and uncertainties for direct and cloud-related forcing; (3) determine functional relationships that express changes in direct and cloud radiative forcing as a function of emission changes; and (4) iterate emission-to-forcing measures as communication tools between decision makers and climate scientists.

Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):

(1) A global, size-distributed inventory of particulate matter was developed. (2) Measured radiative fluxes were compared with simulated ones using a regional model with an optimized physics ensemble. (3) We demonstrated the ability to use emission-normalized forcing even for indirect (cloud) forcing, identified the conditions under which a simple proportionality must be adjusted, and identified the physical causes of failure of proportionality. (4) We showed that negative forcing by clouds, induced by a unit of emission, is lower than the global average for early reductions in Asia. These regions may be strong candidates for “climate-friendly” reductions of particulate matter. (5) We identified aggregation regions of 30° x 30° in which forcing induced by a specific emission region is detectable; for indirect forcing, these significant regions occupy only 15-45% of the globe. This finding indicates how a region influences itself and other regions, as well as pinpointing locations where the effects of emission changes might be distinguished. (6) We summarized how information on short-lived climate forcers is perceived by sub-national decision makers who take actions to affect climate. Simplification and clear messages are needed. (7) We explored a measure, the integrated temperature perturbation, that is intended to be simple yet communicate timing of emissions and impacts. 


Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 9 publications 3 publications in selected types All 3 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Bond TC, Doherty SJ, Fahey DW, Forster PM, Berntsen T, DeAngelo BJ, Flanner MG, Ghan S, Karcher B, Koch D, Kinne S, Kondo Y, Quinn PK, Sarofim MC, Schultz MG, Schulz M, Venkataraman C, Zhang H, Zhang S, Bellouin N, Guttikunda SK, Hopke PK, Jacobson MZ, Kaiser JW, Klimont Z, Lohmann U, Schwarz JP, Shindell D, Storelvmo T, Warren SG, Zender CS. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system:a scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres 2013;118(11):5380-5552. R835034 (2012)
R835034 (2013)
R835034 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Li J, von Salzen K, Peng Y, Zhang H, Liang X-Z. Evaluation of black carbon semi-direct radiative effect in a climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres 2013;118(10):4715-4728. R835034 (2012)
    R835034 (2013)
    R835034 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Winijkul E, Yan F, Lu Z, Streets DG, Bond TC, Zhao Y. Size-resolved global emission inventory of primary particulate matter from energy-related combustion sources. Atmospheric Environment 2015;107:137-147. R835034 (2014)
    R835034 (2015)
    R835034 (Final)
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Emissions, size distribution, aerosol speciation, aerosols, clouds, radiative forcings, ambient air, regional air quality, regional climate, global climate  

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
    2012 Progress Report
    2013 Progress Report
    2014 Progress Report
    2015 Progress Report