Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing EstimatesEPA Grant Number: R835034
Title: Linking Regional Aerosol Emission Changes with Multiple Impact Measures through Direct and Cloud-Related Forcing Estimates
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Amar, Praveen , Liang, Xin-Zhong , Streets, David G.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Argonne National Laboratory , NESCAUM
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: August 1, 2011 through July 31, 2014 (Extended to July 31, 2016)
Project Amount: $899,773
RFA: Black Carbon's Role In Global To Local Scale Climate And Air Quality (2010) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
The objectives of this project are: (1) Develop size-resolved, spectated emission inventories of aerosols and aerosol precursors; (2) Employ an ensemble of parameterizations in regional-scale models to identify best estimates and uncertainties for fields of direct and c1oud-related forcing; (3) Determine functional relationships that express changes in direct and cloud radiative forcing as a function of emission changes in particular locations, testing the hypoth esis that regional emission-forcing relationships can be linearized over small ranges; and (4) Iterate emission-to-forcing measures as communication tools between decision makers and climate scientists.
For emission inventories, we will combine a representation of global fuel combustion and combustion source categories with a literature search on size-resolved emissions. Modeling of direct and cloud forcing will be accomplished with the Climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) over the United States, integrated with the Optimized Physics Ensemble (OPE) approach that chooses 15 representative cloud-aerosol-radiation and physics combinations from existing pararneterizations. Multiple remote-sensing measurements will be compared to select these ensemble members. The same fields will be estimated globally using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) coupled with the OPE. We will explore methods of apportioning forCing among source categories and compare linear apportionment with differences between model results with and without Source categories. We will iterate measures that quantify regional climate forcing with state decision makers to develop presentations that are understood by non-scientific policy audiences.
Outputs expected from this project include improved confidence in direct radiative forcing and cloud radiative forcing, particularly over the United States and with regard to United States emissions publicly available, documented data sets including emission inventories of size-resolved primary aerosol emissions and impact measuresj fields describing hest estimate and uncertainties of forcing in the U.S. (at 30km resolution) and the world (at ~150km resolution). Expected outcomes are increased confidence in the understanding of aerosol effects on climate, particularly aerosols associated with source categories rich in black carbon, and an ability to quantify the impacts of decisions that lead to changes in climate forcing, using quantification measures that are accessible to decision makers.