2014 Progress Report: [Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease] Observational,Laboratory, and Modeling Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change onAllergic Airway Disease

EPA Grant Number: R834547
Title: [Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease] Observational,Laboratory, and Modeling Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change onAllergic Airway Disease
Investigators: Bielory, Leonard , Bonos, Stacy , Georgopoulos, Panos G. , Hom, John , Isukapalli, Sastry S. , Lankow, Richard , Mayer, Henry , Robock, Alan , Velliyagounder, Kabilan , Ziska, Lewis
Institution: Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: April 1, 2010 through March 31, 2012 (Extended to March 31, 2016)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2014 through March 31,2015
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease (2008) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Health , Climate Change

Objective:

The objectives of the project are to:

  • Develop a regional atmospheric dynamic model of pollen production, distribution, and dispersion.
  • Develop a population exposure and dose model for estimating pollen exposures.
  • Generate pollen phenology from the existing 25 years database from the existing certified 74 U.S. pollen counting stations.
  • Use the regional model to determine how climate change over the next 50 years will change pollen production, distribution, dispersion, and subsequently exposures.
  • Determine the impact of climate change on pollen allergenicity of various species of plants using plant chamber and transects with in vitro and in vivo techniques.

Progress Summary:

The progress to date is summarized below.

  • Conducted analysis using American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology (AAAAI) observed airborne pollen data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observed meteorology/climate data during 1994-2010; results were used to identify observed climate change effects on allergenic pollen season of representative trees, weeds, and grasses in nine climate regions in the contiguous United States.
  • Bayesian analyses have been conducted to find the relationship between multiple pollen indices and multiple climatic factors using historical pollen and climate data in three representative stations in Europe, and five stations in the United States.
  • Application and evaluation of SMOKE-Pollen, a pollen-specific emission model based on the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) Modeling System was completed.
  • Observation-based empirical models and process-based mechanistic models (GDH and Growing Degree Days model) were used to generate the start date and length of pollen season based on historical and future meteorology.
  • Area coverage of birch, oak, and grass were obtained from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3 (BELD3); an algorithm to estimate the area coverage of ragweed and mugwort using observed airborne pollen data and BELD3 for the contiguous United States was established.
  • Daily and hourly flowering likelihood were parameterized based on published data and methodology.
  • A sensitivity analyses module has been developed to test the sensitivities of the developed emission model to different input parameters, and to obtain sensitive parameters for further analyses.
  • Application and evaluation of the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen was completed. Verification was conducted by comparing the output of the combined WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen modeling system with the observed pollen count at around 86 monitoring stations in the United States and Canada. Statistical analysis is being conducted to obtain metrics such as mean square errors, hit and false alarm rates, correlation coefficients, and mean fractional bias, etc., to evaluate simulation results from the model.
  • Development of an exposure modeling system, adapted to generate population exposure estimates to multiple aero-allergenic pollens, under different climate change scenarios has been completed.
  • Climate change collections for weeds and grasses have been finished.

Future Activities:

The future activities are to:

  • Document and demonstrate the expanded MENTOR for allergenic pollen exposure modeling system for its operational applications in the fields of forecast and research of allergy and airborne allergenic pollen distributions.
  • Prepare manuscripts to present the results obtained using the developed WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen modeling system and exposure modeling system.
  • Include pollen assessments in climate chamber analyses.
  • Prepare pollen maps of the continental United States (past, present, and future).


Journal Articles on this Report : 5 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 63 publications 16 publications in selected types All 14 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Gleason JA, Bielory L, Fagliano JA. Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey:a case-crossover study. Environmental Research 2014;132:421-429. R834547 (2013)
R834547 (2014)
R834547 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Journal Article Zhang Y, Isukapalli SS, Bielory L, Georgopoulos PG. Bayesian analysis of climate change effects on observed and projected airborne levels of birch pollen. Atmospheric Environment 2013;68:64-73. R834547 (2011)
    R834547 (2012)
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    R834547 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Zhang Y, Bielory L, Georgopoulos PG. Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States. International Journal of Biometeorology 2014;58(5):909-919. R834547 (2011)
    R834547 (2012)
    R834547 (2013)
    R834547 (2014)
    R834547 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Springer-Abstract & Full-text HTML
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  • Journal Article Zhang Y, Bielory L, Mi Z, Cai T, Robock A, Georgopoulos P. Allergenic pollen season variations in the past two decades under changing climate in the United States. Global Change Biology 2015;21(4):1581-1589. R834547 (2012)
    R834547 (2013)
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    R834547 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Zhang Y, Bielory L, Cai T, Mi Z, Georgopoulos P. Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States. Atmospheric Environment 2015;103:297-306. R834547 (2012)
    R834547 (2013)
    R834547 (2014)
    R834547 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    allergens, exposure, climate change, health effects, dose-response, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Risk Assessments, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, air quality modeling, ecosystem models, climatic influence, climate related morbidity, emissions impact, modeling, climate models, demographics, human exposure, regional climate model, ambient air pollution, Global Climate Change

    Relevant Websites:

    Department of Environmental Sciences | Rutgers School of Environmental and Biological Sciences Exit
    Computational Chemodynamics Laboratory | Rutgers Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • 2011 Progress Report
  • 2012 Progress Report
  • 2013 Progress Report
  • Final Report