Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling SystemEPA Grant Number: R834286
Title: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
Investigators: Wu, Shiliang , Kaplan, Jed
Institution: Michigan Technological University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Amount: $299,596
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
This project will investigate the potential impacts of changing land use and land cover on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality in the United States from 2010 to 2050. It will develop an integrated modeling system and quantify the contributing effects from changes in land cover due to climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization as well as those from anthropogenic land-use change. These changes are expected to affect air quality through various aspects including changes in the natural emissions of ozone and PM precursors and changes in the deposition of ozone and PM as well as their precursors. Some preliminary work has shown that these changes in the coming decades could have potentially large impacts on atmospheric chemistry and air quality.
We will couple three global models including a general circulation model (GISS GCM 3), a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ), and a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) in this project. The LPJ vegetation model will be driven by meteorological fields from the GISS GCM to examine the potential effects of climate change on vegetation by 2050. We will implement the global vegetation cover (for both present-day and 2050) into the GEOS-Chem model and conduct fully coupled ozone-aerosol simulations to investigate the consequence for ozone and PM air quality in the United States. We will also investigate the effects from changes in anthropogenic land-use change such as deforestation/afforestation and agricultural expansion.
The proposed study will expand the capability of current models used for long-term air quality planning by accounting for effects from changes in climate and vegetation. It will provide an integrated assessment of the potential impacts on ozone and PM air quality in the United States from future changes in land use and land cover driven by climate change, increasing CO2 fertilization, and direct human intervention. Results from this project will help policy makers to develop improved strategies for long-term planning of air quality management in the context of global change.