Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight ChoiceEPA Grant Number: R834280
Title: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Barkan, Chris , Lee, Bumsoo , Ouyang, Yanfeng , Smith, Steven J.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Hunt, Sherri
Project Period: November 1, 2009 through October 31, 2012 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Amount: $599,560
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
We will integrate existing models to produce a global-regional-urban emission model of the international freight system; identify multiple impacts of freight handling decisions under a range of global economic scenarios; and identify robust decisions regarding the freight handling infrastructure under future uncertainty. Hypotheses involve: (1) dominant environmental impacts of freight handling; (2) dependence of modal shift solutions on prior investment; (3) impact of spatial distribution of employment activity centers on emissions; and (4) siting of intermodal terminals. The connection between freight handling and environmental impacts has been examined previously, but the entire system from modal choice to delivery has not been modeled and multiple scenarios have not been systematically explored.
We will create a global-to-urban model in which commodities are distributed using economic inputs from an integrated assessment model (MiniCAM), determine freight mode using a network loading model, estimate delivery efficiencies using models of urban form, project emissions from rail and trucks with a technology choice model (SPEW-Trend), and produce spatially-distributed emissions using surrogates. This model will estimate the health, air quality and climate impacts of the combined freight system.
Expected Results will include publicly-available impact measures under a wide range of future scenarios, future emission data sets by county and for the globe, and presentations and papers. Decisionmakers will gain tools to balance multiple impacts, and to evaluate decisions that lead to the lowest environmental impacts under future uncertainty.