US Freshwater Resources in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Climate-hydrologic Modeling StudyEPA Grant Number: R834190
Title: US Freshwater Resources in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Climate-hydrologic Modeling Study
Investigators: Reinfelder, Ying Fan , Miller, James R. , Robinson, David A.
Current Investigators: Reinfelder, Ying Fan
Institution: Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
EPA Project Officer: Hiscock, Michael
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2012 (Extended to July 31, 2014)
Project Amount: $769,065
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Global Climate Change , Water and Watersheds , Ecosystems , Climate Change , Water
The proposed research will quantify the potential changes in the hydrologic states (snow, soil moisture, groundwater level, river flow, wetland extent) and fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, water table recharge, stream baseflow) across N. America, over the next decades (2008-2050).
The proposed research will be carried out in 3 steps. In step-1 we will simulate the observed hydrologic changes over the past 30yrs over N. America using a coupled climate hydrology model, RAMS-Hydro, developed at Rutgers in recent years, in order to test the model’s ability to produce the observed changes in the past. In step-2, we will downscale global climate model (GCM) projections over the next 42yrs using the full RAMS-Hydro, for two carbon emission scenarios and using multiple model configurations. In step-3, we will infer potential changes in freshwater wetlands in response to the simulated hydrologic change.
The outcome is a dynamically and nationally consistent assessment of the range of potential changes in the hydrologic states (snow, soil moisture, groundwater level, river flow, wetland extent) and fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, water table recharge, stream baseflow), for the nation over the next decades. National maps of trends, regional and sub-regional time series of key hydrologic variables, and state maps of potential wetland loss and gain, are among the final products. Potential changes in water quantity and flow regimes are key physical drivers of and can directly be applied to the assessment of water quality and ecosystem impacts.