2011 Progress Report: Regional Infrastructure and Air Quality Planning in Light of Global Change

EPA Grant Number: R834283
Title: Regional Infrastructure and Air Quality Planning in Light of Global Change
Investigators: Hess, Peter , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Mahowald, Natalie M. , Zhang, Ke Max
Institution: Cornell University
EPA Project Officer: Callan, Richard
Project Period: October 1, 2009 through September 30, 2012 (Extended to September 30, 2015)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2010 through September 30,2011
Project Amount: $591,683
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

The purpose of the research is to:

1) determine how changes exogeneous to the United States, including changes in climate, changes in emissions and changes in the global economy, will impact U.S. air quality over the Northeastern region of the United States in the future;

2) determine how long-term changes in transportation infrastructure, technology and power generation in response to future economic and regulatory changes (including those induced by climate change) will induce communities within the Northeastern United States to make regional scale changes in land use, transportation and spatial interaction to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and thus modify regional air quality.

Progress Summary:

In the past year, we have completed generating the spatial time series data for commodity flows between 13 industries in 13 states plus the rest of the world over 31 years1977-2007and we validated these data against data published for benchmark years. We also have generated time series data on producer prices and wages by industry over the same period. We are now engaged in estimating the resulting structural equation model by equation blocs.

We have published the result of simulations to understand and estimate the import of pollution into the United States. This has resulted in the following conclusions:  (i) the summer ozone plume from Asia occurs at higher heights than the winter/spring plume and its concentration is higher; (ii) transport of Asian pollution to the surface over the United States tends to occur in the subsiding air along isentropic surfaces to the west of cold fronts; (iii) while the summertime ozone plume is higher in concentration than the winter/spring ozone plume, it is not readily transported to the surface; (iv) the highest surface ozone concentrations over the United States attributable to Asian pollution occur during the spring months because the transport is efficient, ozone concentrations over Asia are relatively high during spring and relatively little ozone is destroyed en route.

We have been engaged in developing and evaluating the Community Earth System Model with chemistry over both the United States and globally.

Future Activities:

We will employ the time-series data on commodity flows to in the econometric estimation of a dynamic commodity flow model; (ii) continue to refine future climate and emission scenarios on regional and local scales over the Northeast United States; (iii) run simulations using the commodity flow model to generate emissions inventories on criteria pollutants corresponding to different emission scenarios; (iv) evaluate the simulation of air quality using the Community Earth System Model with chemistry in the current climate using both analyzed and model generated meteorology; (v) run the Community Earth System Model in future climate-chemistry configurations; and (vi) continue to evaluate chemistry in the Community Earth  System Model using present-day measurements.


Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 16 publications 7 publications in selected types All 5 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Brown-Steiner B, Hess PG. Asian influence on surface ozone in the United States: a comparison of chemistry, seasonality, and transport mechanisms. Journal of Geophysical Research 2011;116(D17):D17309 (13 pp.). R834283 (2011)
R834283 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract & Full Text HTML
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  • Journal Article Lamarque J-F, Emmons LK, Hess PG, Kinnison DE, Tilmes S, Vitt F, Heald CL, Holland EA, Lauritzen PH, Neu J, Orlando JJ, Rasch P, Tyndall G. CAM-chem: description and evaluation of interactive atmospheric chemistry in CESM. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 2011;4(3):2199-2278. R834283 (2011)
  • Full-text: Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
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  • Abstract: Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, POLLUTION PREVENTION, Energy, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, atmospheric nitrogen, particulate matter, decision making, energy efficiency, environmental policy, forests, deforestation, ecosystem sustainability, air quality, Global Climate Change, land use

    Relevant Websites:

    http://www.bee.cornell.edu/cals/bee/people/hess.cfm Exit

    http://aap.cornell.edu/crp/people/faculty-profile.cfm?customel_datapageid_7102=39829 Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • 2012 Progress Report
  • 2013 Progress Report
  • 2014
  • Final Report