2011 Progress Report: Regional Infrastructure and Air Quality Planning in Light of Global ChangeEPA Grant Number: R834283
Title: Regional Infrastructure and Air Quality Planning in Light of Global Change
Investigators: Hess, Peter , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Mahowald, Natalie M. , Zhang, Ke Max
Institution: Cornell University
EPA Project Officer: Callan, Richard
Project Period: October 1, 2009 through September 30, 2012 (Extended to September 30, 2015)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2010 through September 30,2011
Project Amount: $591,683
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
The purpose of the research is to:
1) determine how changes exogeneous to the United States, including changes in climate, changes in emissions and changes in the global economy, will impact U.S. air quality over the Northeastern region of the United States in the future;
2) determine how long-term changes in transportation infrastructure, technology and power generation in response to future economic and regulatory changes (including those induced by climate change) will induce communities within the Northeastern United States to make regional scale changes in land use, transportation and spatial interaction to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and thus modify regional air quality.
In the past year, we have completed generating the spatial time series data for commodity flows between 13 industries in 13 states plus the rest of the world over 31 years—1977-2007—and we validated these data against data published for benchmark years. We also have generated time series data on producer prices and wages by industry over the same period. We are now engaged in estimating the resulting structural equation model by equation blocs.
We have published the result of simulations to understand and estimate the import of pollution into the United States. This has resulted in the following conclusions: (i) the summer ozone plume from Asia occurs at higher heights than the winter/spring plume and its concentration is higher; (ii) transport of Asian pollution to the surface over the United States tends to occur in the subsiding air along isentropic surfaces to the west of cold fronts; (iii) while the summertime ozone plume is higher in concentration than the winter/spring ozone plume, it is not readily transported to the surface; (iv) the highest surface ozone concentrations over the United States attributable to Asian pollution occur during the spring months because the transport is efficient, ozone concentrations over Asia are relatively high during spring and relatively little ozone is destroyed en route.
We have been engaged in developing and evaluating the Community Earth System Model with chemistry over both the United States and globally.
We will employ the time-series data on commodity flows to in the econometric estimation of a dynamic commodity flow model; (ii) continue to refine future climate and emission scenarios on regional and local scales over the Northeast United States; (iii) run simulations using the commodity flow model to generate emissions inventories on criteria pollutants corresponding to different emission scenarios; (iv) evaluate the simulation of air quality using the Community Earth System Model with chemistry in the current climate using both analyzed and model generated meteorology; (v) run the Community Earth System Model in future climate-chemistry configurations; and (vi) continue to evaluate chemistry in the Community Earth System Model using present-day measurements.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
|Other project views:||All 16 publications||7 publications in selected types||All 5 journal articles|
||Brown-Steiner B, Hess PG. Asian influence on surface ozone in the United States: a comparison of chemistry, seasonality, and transport mechanisms. Journal of Geophysical Research 2011;116(D17):D17309 (13 pp.).||
||Lamarque J-F, Emmons LK, Hess PG, Kinnison DE, Tilmes S, Vitt F, Heald CL, Holland EA, Lauritzen PH, Neu J, Orlando JJ, Rasch P, Tyndall G. CAM-chem: description and evaluation of interactive atmospheric chemistry in CESM. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 2011;4(3):2199-2278.||