2012 Progress Report: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model

EPA Grant Number: R833864
Title: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Chen, Shuhua , Kaufman, Joel D. , Ostro, Bart , Reynolds, Peggy , Sampson, Paul , Ying, Qi
Institution: University of California - Davis , Northern California Cancer Center , Texas A & M University , University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: December 1, 2008 through November 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2011 through October 31,2012
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Innovative Approaches to Particulate Matter Health, Composition, and Source Questions (2007) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Health Effects , Particulate Matter , Air

Objective:

The objective of this study is to combine existing atmospheric science tools and epidemiological tools to improve our understanding of the health effects of airborne particulate matter (PM).  The UCD/CIT source-oriented chemical transport model and the U.S. EPA CMAQ model will be used to predict enhanced PM exposure assessments that will be incorporated in four existing epidemiological studies.  PM concentrations will be predicted with 24-hr time resolution continuously over the period from 2000-2006 across the entire continental United States with 36 km resolution. Results will be nested downward to a maximum resolution of ~4-5 km in three different subregions (California, Midwest, and East Coast) that overlap with epidemiological populations.  Further nesting using statistical regression models will increase the maximum resolution to 10 m in selected regions.  Air quality model results will be incorporated into three longitudinal cohort studies (MESA Air, WHI-OS, CTS) and one time series study (CALFINE).  The examination of both chronic and acute exposures in multiple populations will provide a robust test of the use of chemical transport models for epidemiological studies.

Progress Summary:

Prognostic meteorological fields have been generated for the entire United States and for nested domains in the State of California and the Eastern United States for the years 2000-2006. All meteorological predictions have been rigorously compared to measurements. 

The SMOKE emissions model has been modified to use the UCD source profile library and emissions corrected for predicted meteorological conditions have been generated for the years 2005 and 2006 across the entire United States.   

The UCD/CIT emissions model has been modified to generate separate emissions records for each source in the inventory generated by the State of California.  A separate version of the UCD/CIT air quality model has been created that is capable of tracking primary PM emissions from thousands of different sources through a simulation of atmospheric transport and deposition. Seven years of primary airborne particulate matter have been simulated for California including PM10, PM2.5, and PM0.1.  Results have been compared to measurements for particle composition and source contributions.  More than 100 primary PM2.5 source contribution fields and more than 20 primary PM0.1 source contribution fields passed constraint checks and will be provided to epidemiological studies.  Preliminary work has begun to perform similar calculations for the entire United States.

A nested version of the UCD-CIT air quality model has been created and applied to the TexAQS 2000 air quality episode.  The nesting approach has been adopted in the UCD/CIT model that can track thousands of different sources. 

CMAQ simulations of air quality for the entire United States and the nested domains in the eastern United States have been completed for the years 2000-2006. All CMAQ results have been rigorously compared to measured air quality.

CMAQ simulations in California with 4 km resolutions have completed for 6 months in 2005, and simulations for the rest of the days in 2005 are in progress.

A version of the CMAQ model with source apportionment capability for nitrate and sulfate has been developed and tested.  The model has been used to predict source contributions to sulfate and nitrate in the United States and China.

A new version of UCD-CIT air quality model has been developed that uses the SAPRC11 photochemical mechanism, the ACM2 non-local diffusion scheme, and the CMAQ4.7.1 SOA module.  The UCD-CIT model can calculate source contributions to SOA species.  The model has been tested. Approximately 1.5 years secondary air quality simulations have been completed and the remaining years are ongoing.  The first year results of gaseous and PM species have been compared to ambient measurements.

Preliminary work has started to develop a screening methodology for testing the association between various PM species and survival.  The datasets employed in this method are publicly available and their use may provide a fast and inexpensive screening tool to identify PM sources/sizes/components that are correlated with adverse human health outcomes.

A new “SpatioTemporal” R package has been created and made publicly available. This R package can transform a series of measurements that are discontinuous in space and time into a prediction for pollutant concentrations at a location where measurements are not available.  The technique will be applied to downscale regional model predictions from a resolution of 4 km to a scale of tens of meters.

Future Activities:

  • Primary and secondary air quality simulations will be carried out for the study regions of interest using the UCD-CIT and CMAQ air quality models.
  • Air quality predictions will be compared to measurements with special focus on statistical source apportionment results where they are available.
  • Air quality predictions will be integrated with epidemiological studies.
  • Manuscripts will be prepared describing all of the activities above.


Journal Articles on this Report : 8 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 26 publications 16 publications in selected types All 16 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Adar SD, Klein R, Klein BE, Szpiro AA, Cotch MF, Wong TY, O'Neill MS, Shrager S, Barr RG, Siscovick DS, Daviglus ML, Sampson PD, Kaufman JD. Air pollution and the microvasculature: a cross-sectional assessment of in vivo retinal images in the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). PLoS Medicine 2010;7(11):e1000372 (11 pp.). R833864 (2011)
R833864 (2012)
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R831697 (2010)
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  • Journal Article Adar SD, Sheppard L, Vedal S, Polak JF, Sampson PD, Diez Roux AV, Budoff M, Jacobs Jr. DR, Barr RG, Watson K, Kaufman JD. Fine particulate air pollution and the progression of carotid intima-medial thickness: a prospective cohort study from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and air pollution. PLoS Medicine 2013;10(4):e1001430 (9 pp.). R833864 (2012)
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  • Journal Article Hu J, Zhang H, Chen S-H, Wiedinmyer C, Vandenberghe F, Ying Q, Kleeman MJ. Predicting primary PM2.5 and PM0.1 trace composition for epidemiological studies in California. Environmental Science & Technology 2014;48(9):4971-4979. R833864 (2011)
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  • Other: ResearchGate-Abstract & Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Sampson PD, Szpiro AA, Sheppard L, Lindstrom J, Kaufman JD. Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data. Atmospheric Environment 2011;45(36):6593-6606. R833864 (2011)
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  • Journal Article Sampson PD, Richards M, Szpiro AA, Bergen S, Sheppard L, Larson TV, Kaufman JD. A regionalized national universal kriging model using Partial Least Squares regression for estimating annual PM2.5 concentrations in epidemiology. Atmospheric Environment 2013;75:383-392. R833864 (2012)
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    R834796 (2013)
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  • Journal Article Szpiro AA, Sampson PD, Sheppard L, Lumley T, Adar SD, Kaufman JD. Predicting intra-urban variation in air pollution concentrations with complex spatio-temporal dependencies. Environmetrics 2010;21(6):606-631. R833864 (2011)
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    R831697 (2010)
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  • Full-text: University of Washington-Abstract & Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Zhang H, Ying Q. Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter in Southeast Texas using a source-oriented 3D air quality model. Atmospheric Environment 2010;44(29):3547-3557. R833864 (2009)
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  • Journal Article Zhang H, Li J, Ying Q, Yu JZ, Wu D, Chen Y, He K, Jiang J. Source apportionment of PM2.5 nitrate and sulfate in China using a source-oriented chemical transport model. Atmospheric Environment 2012;62:228-242. R833864 (2011)
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Source-oriented external mixture, air quality, epidemiology

    Relevant Websites:

    http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/kleeman/ Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • 2011 Progress Report
  • 2013 Progress Report
  • Final Report