2010 Progress Report: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model

EPA Grant Number: R833864
Title: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Chen, Shuhua , Kaufman, Joel D. , Ostro, Bart , Reynolds, Peggy , Sampson, Paul , Ying, Qi
Institution: University of California - Davis , Northern California Cancer Center , Texas A & M University , University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: December 1, 2008 through November 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 31, 2009 through November 1,2010
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Innovative Approaches to Particulate Matter Health, Composition, and Source Questions (2007) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Health Effects , Particulate Matter , Air

Objective:

The objective of this study is to combine existing atmospheric science tools and epidemiological tools to improve our understanding of the health effects of airborne particulate matter (PM).  The UCD/CIT source-oriented chemical transport model and the US EPA CMAQ model will be used to predict enhanced PM exposure assessments that will be incorporated in four existing epidemiological studies.  PM concentrations will be predicted with 24-hr time resolution continuously over the period from 2000-2006 across the entire continental United States with 36 km resolution.  Results will be nested downward to a maximum resolution of ~4-5 km in 3 different subregions (California, Midwest, and East Coast) that overlap with epidemiological populations.  Further nesting using statistical regression models will increase the maximum resolution to 10 m in selected regions.  Air quality model results will be incorporated into three longitudinal cohort studies (MESA Air, WHI-OS, and CTS) and one time series study (CALFINE).  The examination of both chronic and acute exposures in multiple populations will provide a robust test of the use of chemical transport models for epidemiological studies.

Progress Summary:

Prognostic meteorological fields have been generated for the entire State of California for the years 2000-2006.  The optimized WRF configuration can be used by other researchers and regulators attempting to predict air pollution meteorology in California.
 
Prognostic meteorological fields also have been generated for the entire US and nested domains over the eastern US for the year 2006, with further years in progress.  The generated fields will be made available to other researchers and regulators after they have been fully validated.
 
The SMOKE emissions model has been modified to use the UCD source profile library and emissions corrected for predicted meteorological conditions have been generated for the year 2006 across the entire United States.  The emissions will be made available to other researchers and regulators after their use has been validated in air quality exercises.
 
The UCD/CIT emissions model has been modified to generate separate emissions records for each source in the inventory generated by the State of California.  A separate version of the UCD/CIT air quality model has been created that is capable of tracking primary PM emissions from thousands of different sources through a simulation of atmospheric transport and deposition. This tool has the potential to identify health effects from minor sources that do not strongly influence PM2.5 mass totals.
 
A nested version of the UCD-CIT air quality model has been created and applied to the TexAQS 2000 air quality episode.  The nested code will make it practical to apply the UCD/CIT model on modest computer resources, making it more generally useful to regulatory agencies.  The nesting approach currently is being adopted in the UCD/CIT model that can track thousands of different sources. 
 
A full year of air quality has been simulated for the State of California and the results have been compared to measurements to identify biases in model formulation and/or input data.  Further years of simulation are in progress.

Future Activities:

  • Remaining prognostic meteorological fields will be generated for the United States between 2000-2006. 
  • Primary and secondary air quality simulations will be carried out for the study regions of interest using the UCD-CIT and CMAQ air quality models.
  • Air quality predictions will be compared to measurements with special focus on statistical source apportionment results where they are available.
  • Air quality predictions will be integrated with epidemiological studies.
  • Manuscripts will be prepared describing all of the activities above. 


Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 26 publications 16 publications in selected types All 16 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Zhang H, Ying Q. Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter in Southeast Texas using a source-oriented 3D air quality model. Atmospheric Environment 2010;44(29):3547-3557. R833864 (2009)
R833864 (2010)
R833864 (2011)
R833864 (2012)
R833864 (2013)
R833864 (Final)
  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Source-oriented external mixture, air quality, epidemiology

    Relevant Websites:

    http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/kleeman/exit EPA

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • 2011 Progress Report
  • 2012 Progress Report
  • 2013 Progress Report
  • Final Report