2009 Progress Report: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model

EPA Grant Number: R833864
Title: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Chen, Shuhua , Kaufman, Joel D. , Ostro, Bart , Reynolds, Peggy , Sampson, Paul , Ying, Qi
Institution: University of California - Davis , Northern California Cancer Center , Texas A & M University , University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: December 1, 2008 through November 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 31, 2008 through November 1,2009
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Innovative Approaches to Particulate Matter Health, Composition, and Source Questions (2007) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Health Effects , Particulate Matter , Air

Objective:

The objective of this study is to combine existing atmospheric science tools and epidemiological tools to improve our understanding of the health effects of airborne particulate matter (PM).  The UCD/CIT source-oriented chemical transport model and the US EPA CMAQ model will be used to predict enhanced PM exposure assessments that will be incorporated in four existing epidemiological studies.  PM concentrations will be predicted with 24-hr time resolution continuously over the period from 2000-2006 across the entire continental United States with 36 km resolution.  Results will be nested downward to a maximum resolution of ~4-5 km in 3 different subregions (California, Midwest, and East Coast) that overlap with epidemiological populations. Further nesting using statistical regression models will increase the maximum resolution to 10m in selected regions.  Air quality model results will be incorporated into three longitudinal cohort studies (MESA Air, WHI-OS, CTS) and one time series study (CALFINE).  The examination of both chronic and acute exposures in multiple populations will provide a robust test of the use of chemical transport models for epidemiological studies.

Progress Summary:

Prognostic meteorological fields are needed for California and other sub-regions across the United States.  California’s extreme topography challenges the prognostic models and may require the use of measurement data to constrain the results.  In the first year of this project, the WRF model was tested in California using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) input for initial and boundary conditions but no four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA).  The predicted error and bias suggest that FDDA will be needed for California simulations, and a FDDA dataset is being constructed for the period 2000-06.  Similar tests will be conducted for the eastern United States in the second year of the project.
 
The SMOKE emissions model has been modified to use the UCD source profile library.  An emissions inventory for the eastern United States has been created to support a preliminary modeling study for St. Louis.  The absolute concentration predictions agree reasonably well with measured data.  Likewise, the source apportionment predictions from the UCD-CIT model are in good agreement with molecular marker CMB source apportionment at St. Louis.  An entire year will be simulated in the next phase of the project.
 
A nested version of the UCD-CIT air quality model has been created.  The updated model was tested using a TexAQS 2000 air quality episode. Almost all model predictions meet the US EPA performance criteria.  The nested UCD/CIT model predicted that significantly amount of secondary pollutants (ozone and sulfate) originate from sources hundreds of kilometers away from Houston. The speed improvements associated with the nested version of the model will make it possible to simulate longer time periods at more locations to support epidemiology studies.

Future Activities:

WRF with FDDA will be used to generate prognostic meteorology fields in California between 2000-06.  The results will be used for source-oriented air quality simulations using the UCD-CIT air quality model.
 
WRF will be used to generate prognostic meteorological fields in the United States between 2000-06.  The results will be used for primary and primary+secondary air quality simulations using the UCD-CIT and CMAQ air quality models.
 
Annual-average source apportionment results for the St. Louis region will be compared against molecular marker source apportionment measurements. 
 
Manuscripts will be prepared describing all of the activities above. 


Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 26 publications 16 publications in selected types All 16 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Zhang H, Ying Q. Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter in Southeast Texas using a source-oriented 3D air quality model. Atmospheric Environment 2010;44(29):3547-3557. R833864 (2009)
R833864 (2010)
R833864 (2011)
R833864 (2012)
R833864 (2013)
R833864 (Final)
  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Source-oriented external mixture, air quality, epidemiology

    Relevant Websites:

    http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/kleeman/exit EPA

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • 2011 Progress Report
  • 2012 Progress Report
  • 2013 Progress Report
  • Final Report