2012 Progress Report: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States

EPA Grant Number: R833833
Title: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Auble, Gregor T. , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Dean, Denis , Friedman, Jonathan , Lytle, David , Merritt, David M. , Purkey, David , Raff, David A. , Shafroth, Patrick B.
Current Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Auble, Gregor T. , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Friedman, Jonathan , Lytle, David , Merritt, David M. , Purkey, David , Raff, David A. , Shafroth, Patrick B.
Institution: Colorado State University , Oregon State University , Stockholm Environmental Institute , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , U.S. Forest Service , United States Geological Survey [USGS]
EPA Project Officer: Hiscock, Michael
Project Period: July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2011 through June 30,2012
Project Amount: $599,748
RFA: Ecological Impacts from the Interactions of Climate Change, Land Use Change and Invasive Species: A Joint Research Solicitation - EPA, USDA (2007) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecosystems , Climate Change

Objective:

This project seeks to predict the establishment and spread of invasive species in rivers relative to changes in temperature and precipitation that are expected to modify flow regimes in conjunction with increasing human water demands. Warming and altered patterns of snowmelt and rainfall will modify discharge patterns, thereby potentially disfavoring native species while facilitating invasion by harmful non-natives. The project links a mechanistic model of surface hydrology, with inputs from regionally downscaled climate model projections, to biological response models representing invasive population growth as a function of discharge, air and water temperature, geomorphic setting and community interactions.

Progress Summary:

During this reporting period, we completed the integration of the rainfall-runoff hydrologic model (WEAP, Water Evaluation And Planning) with the geomorphic drainage network classification (GVC, Geomorphic Valley Classification). We obtained and prepared climate inputs and generated preliminary projections of future hydrology throughout the study basin (based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s [IPCC] A2 scenario downscaled as the Bias-Corrected Constructed Analogs [BCCA] product of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 [CMIP3]). We began to generate flow projections relative to alternative infrastructure management scenarios that ranged from “business as usual” to “natural flows restored." We categorized network positions and the associated hydrographs according to the degree of human alteration and conducted initial analyses of possible changes to ecologically relevant features of the flow regime (high and low discharge magnitude, and intra-annual timing and duration) and further developed the biological response model components.

Future Activities:

We anticipate incorporating additional climate projections to extend our representation of the hydrology under alternative management scenarios. We are refining the model implementation of possible management to include actions that specifically target reductions in the number of segments modeled as hydrologically suitable for invasion by saltcedar and New Zealand mudsnail. We will compute basic physical attributes of channel segments using regional regression equations to improve the biological response models within differing geomorphic classes. We will complete additional technical publications describing project implementation and results and seek opportunities to communicate the research implications to non-technical stakeholders. 


Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 25 publications 7 publications in selected types All 5 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article McShane RR, Auerbach DA, Friedman JM, Auble GT, Shafroth PB, Merigliano MF, Scott ML, Poff NL. Distribution of invasive and native riparian woody plants across the western USA in relation to climate, river flow, floodplain geometry and patterns of introduction. Ecography 2015;38(12):1254-1265. R833833 (2012)
R833833 (Final)
  • Full-text: ResearchGate-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Other: Colorado State University-Full Text PDF
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Hydrologic niche model, flow regime, invasive species, land use, dams, temperature, watershed, land, climate, precipitation, risk assessment, ecological effects, climate vulnerability, organism, population, stressor, susceptibility, aquatic habitat, riparian suitability, conservation, biology, ecology, hydrology, geology, modeling, river network, remote sensing, Western, WY, CO, EPA Region 8, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, climatic influence, climate models, ecosystem indicators, aquatic ecosystems, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, invasive species, ecosystem stress, land and water resources, Global Climate Change, climate variability

    Relevant Websites:

    Poff Lab homepage (http://rydberg.biology.colostate.edu/poff/ Exit )

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • 2011 Progress Report
  • Final Report