Final Report: Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP) Phase 2: Implications for U.S. Air Quality and Mercury Deposition of Multiple Climate and Global Emission Scenarios for 2000-2050

EPA Grant Number: R833370
Title: Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP) Phase 2: Implications for U.S. Air Quality and Mercury Deposition of Multiple Climate and Global Emission Scenarios for 2000-2050
Investigators: Jacob, Daniel J. , Byun, Daewon , Fu, Joshua , Mickley, Loretta J. , Rind, David , Seinfeld, John , Streets, David G.
Institution: Harvard University , Argonne National Laboratory , California Institute of Technology , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , University of Houston , University of Tennessee - Knoxville
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: May 1, 2007 through April 30, 2011
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

The overarching goal of GCAP Phase 2 was to better quantify and understand the effects of global change on air quality and mercury deposition in the United States over the coming decades. In GCAP Phase 1, also funded by the EPA, we developed a powerful set of modeling tools with which to attack this goal. We constructed interfaces between the GISS general circulation model (GCM), the GEOS-Chem global model of atmospheric composition, and the MM5/CMAQ regional air quality model. In GCAP Phase 2 we exploited these tools to address the following questions:
 
  • How will 2000-2050 global change affect U.S. air quality under different greenhouse and anthropogenic emission scenarios, and what levels of confidence can be applied to model results?
  • How will 2000-2050 changes in global anthropogenic emissions affect the intercontinental transport of air pollutants to the United States, and what will be the effects on U.S. air quality?
  • How will 2000-2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions of mercury, together with changes in climate, affect deposition of mercury to U.S. ecosystems?

 

Conclusions:

1.1 Major policy-relevant findings from GCAP Phase 2.
 
1.1.1     Observed relationships between air quality and meteorology.
  •  Cyclone frequency has decreased over 1980-2006 period, significantly offsetting ozone air quality gains [Leibensperger et al., 2008].
  • Over the United States, observed concentrations of fine particulate matter are on average 2.6 mg m-3 higher on stagnant vs. non-stagnant days [Tai et al., 2010].
  • Observations show that 20-40% of the observed PM2.5 day-to-day variability can be explained by a single dominant meteorological mode: cold frontal passages in the eastern US and maritime inflow in the West [Tai et al., 2011].
1.1.2     Projections of the effects of climate change on ozone and PM2.5.
  •  2000-2050 climate change (A1B scenario) is expected to increase surface ozone by 2-5 ppb in Midwest/Northeast and up to 10 ppb in pollution events [Wu et al., 2008a]
  • Achieving a given air quality goal will require stronger pollutant emission reductions in future climate (“climate change penalty”) [Wu et al., 2008a]
  • Increasing methane and Asian NOx emissions are expected to increase policy-relevent-background ozone in the coming decades, but for the Eastern United States this may be partly offset by climate change [Wu et al., 2008b]
  • Climate change may increase PM2.5 in some US regions by 0.1-1 μg m-3 due to increased stagnation, but this will be offset by SO2 emission reductions [Pye et al., 2009]
1.1.3    Projections of mercury emissions and deposition.
  •  Global mercury emissions are expected to increase or stay flat in coming decades; increasing contribution from power plants will enhance relative importance of regional sources [Streets et al., 2009]
  • Mercury deposition to the US decreases under optimistic future scenarios, even as global emissions stay constant, because of the shift in emissions towards lower latitudes. [Corbitt et al., 2011]


Journal Articles on this Report : 24 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 52 publications 24 publications in selected types All 24 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Chen W-T, Lee YH, Adams PJ, Nenes A, Seinfeld JH. Will black carbon mitigation dampen aerosol indirect forcing? Geophysical Research Letters 2010;37:L09801 (5 pp.). R833370 (2009)
R833370 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract & Full Text HTML
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  • Other: Georgia Tech-Preprint Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Corbitt ES, Jacob DJ, Holmes CD, Streets DG, Sunderland EM. Global source-receptor relationships for mercury deposition under present-day and 2050 emissions scenarios. Environmental Science & Technology 2011;45(24):10477-10484. R833370 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
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  • Other: Florida State University-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Fu JS, Jang CJ, Streets DG, Li Z, Kwok R, Park R, Han Z. MICS-Asia II:modeling gaseous pollutants and evaluating an advanced modeling system over East Asia. Atmospheric Environment 2008;42(15):3571-3583. R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
    R830959 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Fu JS, Streets DG, Jang CJ, Hao J, He K, Wang L, Zhang Q. Modeling regional/urban ozone and particulate matter in Beijing, China. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2009;59(1):37-44. R833370 (2008)
    R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Abstract: JAWMA-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Fu JS, Dong X, Gao Y, Wong DC, Lam YF. Sensitivity and linearity analysis of ozone in East Asia: the effects of domestic emission and intercontinental transport. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2012;62(9):1102-1114. R833370 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Journal Article Holmes CD, Jacob DJ, Corbitt ES, Mao J, Yang X, Talbot R, Slemr F. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2010;10(24):12037-12057. R833370 (Final)
  • Full-text: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Jacob DJ, Winner DA. Effect of climate change on air quality. Atmospheric Environment 2009;43(1):51-63. R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
    R830959 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Lam YF, Fu JS. A novel downscaling technique for the linkage of global and regional air quality modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2009;9(23):9169-9185. R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
    R830959 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Lam YF, Fu JS, Wu S, Mickley LJ. Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2011;11(10):4789-4806. R833370 (Final)
    R834286 (2011)
    R834286 (2012)
    R834286 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Leibensperger EM, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Barrett SRH. Intercontinental influence of NOx and CO emissions on particulate matter air quality. Atmospheric Environment 2011;45(19):3318-3324. R833370 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Leibensperger EM, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ. Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980-2006 climate change. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2008;8(23):7075-7086. R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
  • Full-text: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Liao H, Henze DK, Seinfeld JH, Wu S, Mickley LJ. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States: comparison of climatological simulations with observations. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2007;112(D6):D06201 (19 pp.). R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
    R830959 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Liao H, Zhang Y, Chen W-T, Raes F, Seinfeld JH. Effect of chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling on predictions of future climate and future levels of tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 2009;114(D10):D10306 (21 pp.). R833370 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Pye HOT, Liao H, Wu S, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Henze DK, Seinfeld JH. Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2009;114(D1):D01205 (18 pp.). R833370 (2008)
    R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
    R830959 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Pye HOT, Chan AWH, Barkley MP, Seinfeld JH. Global modeling of organic aerosol:the importance of reactive nitrogen (NOx and NO3). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2010;10(22):11261-11276. R833370 (Final)
    R833749 (2010)
    R833749 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Pye HOT, Seinfeld JH. A global perspective on aerosol from low-volatility organic compounds. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2010;10(9):4377-4401. R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
    R833749 (2010)
    R833749 (Final)
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  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
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  • Other: CalTech-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Raes F, Liao H, Chen W-T, Seinfeld JH. Atmospheric chemistry-climate feedbacks. Journal of Geophysical Research 2010;115(D12):D12121 (14 pp. R833370 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Streets DG, Zhang Q, Wu Y. Projections of global mercury emissions in 2050. Environmental Science & Technology 2009;43(8):2983-2988. R833370 (2008)
    R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
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  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Tai APK, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ. Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. Atmospheric Environment 2010;44(32):3976-3984. R833370 (2009)
    R833370 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Tai APK, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Leibensperger EM, Zhang L, Fisher JA, Pye HOT. Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in the United States: implications for PM2.5 sensitivity to climate change. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2012;12(6):3131-3145. R833370 (Final)
  • Full-text: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Wang Y, Shen L, Wu S, Mickley L, He J, Hao J. Sensitivity of surface ozone over China to 2000–2050 global changes of climate and emissions. Atmospheric Environment 2013;75:374-382. R833370 (Final)
    R834286 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Weaver CP, Liang X-Z, Zhu J, Adams PJ, Amar P, Avise J, Caughey M, Chen J, Cohen RC, Cooter E, Dawson JP, Gilliam R, Gilliland A, Goldstein AH, Grambsch A, Grano D, Guenther A, Gustafson WI, Harley RA, He S, Hemming B, Hogrefe C, Huang H-C, Hunt SW, Jacob DJ, Kinney PL, Kunkel K, Lamarque J-F, Lamb B, Larkin NK, Leung LR, Liao K-J, Lin J-T, Lynn BH, Manomaiphiboon K, Mass C, McKenzie D, Mickley LJ, O'neill SM, Nolte C, Pandis SN, Racherla PN, Rosenzweig C, Russell AG, Salathe E, Steiner AL, Tagaris E, Tao Z, Tonse S, Wiedinmyer C, Williams A, Winner DA, Woo J-H, Wu S, Wuebbles DJ. A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2009;90(12):1843-1863. R833370 (Final)
    R830960 (Final)
    R830964 (Final)
    R833369 (Final)
    R833373 (Final)
    R833374 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Wu S, Mickley LJ, Leibensperger EM, Jacob DJ, Rind D, Streets DG. Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2008;113(D6):D06302 (12 pp.). R833370 (2007)
    R833370 (2008)
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  • Journal Article Wu S, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Rind D, Streets DG. Effects of 2000-2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-relevant background surface ozone in the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2008;113(D18):D18312 (12 pp.). R833370 (2008)
    R833370 (2009)
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    chemical transport, volatile organic compounds (VOCs),
    nitrogen oxides, sulfates, organics, pollution prevention, environmental chemistry,
    modeling, climate models, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol, mercury, mercury
    deposition
    , RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecology and Ecosystems, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, mercury deposition, Baysian analysis, climate models, atmospheric models

    Relevant Websites:

    Many of the GCAP papers can be found here:

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2007 Progress Report
  • 2008 Progress Report
  • 2009 Progress Report