Effects of Future Emissions and a Changed Climate on Urban Air Quality

EPA Grant Number: R833371
Title: Effects of Future Emissions and a Changed Climate on Urban Air Quality
Investigators: Jacobson, Mark Z. , Streets, David G.
Institution: Stanford University , Argonne National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2007 through January 31, 2011 (Extended to January 31, 2012)
Project Amount: $899,984
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air


This is project to study the effects of changes in emissions on climate and the resulting feedback of climate change on air quality in Los Angeles, the Central Valley, and Atlanta during the next 50 years. We will examine the effects of emission changes resulting from standard IPCC-SRES future emission scenarios. We will also examine the effects of emission changes due to implementing a future fleet of ethanol-gasoline, plug-in gasoline-electric hybrids, and wind-electrolysis-hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles. Finally, we will look at the future contribution of Asian emissions to U.S. pollution.


The study will involve model simulations of climate and air quality with GATOR-GCMOM, which nests size-resolved aerosols, gases, and meteorological variables together from the global to urban scale. This model is unique because it allows the continuous inflow of gas and aerosol information from the global to finer scales (rather than running a separate global model offline to produce meteorology a regional nested model) and treats physical processes and gridding consistently on all scales. The model resolves transports (horizontally and vertically) clouds and precipitation and forms them physically from aerosol particles on nonglobal nested grids. The model will first be used with 50-year A1B and B1 emission factors applied to the 2005 U.S. National Emission Inventory. Three additional future inventories, one with E85 (85% ethanol-15% gasoline) vehicles, one with plug-in hybrid vehicles, and one with wind-hydrogen fuel cell vehicles substituted for gasoline vehicles, will also be prepared. Simulations will be run for 50 years, with nesting in Los Angeles, the Central Valley, and Atlanta in years 1 and 50. First-year results will be evaluated against data.

Expected Results:

This study will estimate the effects of future emission scenarios on climate and the resulting climate effects on U.S. air quality. While overall U.S. air quality is expected to improve due to lower emissions, global warming may reduce this benefit. The purpose of this project is to quantify the net effect of global warming on air pollution. The study will also analyze a future fleet of E85 vehicles on 3-D air pollution. Of interest is determination of whether such vehicles will increase or decrease ozone and PAN in different parts of the U.S. and how global warming may affect their emission. Higher future emissions from Asia are hypothesized to increase urban air quality problems in California and the west.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 66 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 23 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

Air pollution modeling; United States, Global warming, Exposure, Air,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, Baysian analysis, emissions impact, climate models, alternative fuel, atmospheric models

Progress and Final Reports:

  • 2007 Progress Report
  • 2008 Progress Report
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • Final Report